In the last few posts we’ve looked at polling averages and the number of electorate seats and total seats won in Parliament by the various political parties. For most people, however, when looking at political polls the main result they are interested in is which party or coalition would win an election if it was [...]
Archive for November, 2009
Scenario Analysis, 20th November
Posted in Scenario Analysis on November 26, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
Polling Update and Election Simulation, 20th November
Posted in Election Simulation, Polling Update on November 24, 2009 | 2 Comments »
The latest NZ political poll was released by Roy Morgan Research on the 19th November. It showed a relatively large drop in support for National of 4 points (from 55.5% to 51.5%) and a gain for Labour of 4 points (from 29% to 33%). The current party vote polling averages for each party are shown [...]
Time stamps
Posted in Uncategorized on November 19, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
Apologies. I’ve been having a bit of trouble with the time and date stamps on posts due to mixing up time zones. This might have made some posts publish twice and others out of order. Sorry for any inconvenience if anybody is on an RSS feed.
Electorate seats, continued
Posted in Election Simulation on November 19, 2009 | 1 Comment »
Yesterday I started on a general outline of how the electoral seat simulation works. Today I show the results for the number of electoral seats won by each party (the Green Party and New Zealand First are not expected to win any electorate seats, and thus are not shown.) Also, as hinted at in the [...]
Electorate seats
Posted in Methodology, tagged Electorate Seats, Electorate Swing, Methodology on November 17, 2009 | 3 Comments »
Correctly predicting the winners of the 70 electorate contests is vital for any New Zealand General Election simulation to be meaningful. There are two major reasons for this; firstly, for many of the minor political parties the electorate waiver determines eligibility to receive additional list seats in parliament, a current example being the four list [...]
Election Simulation, 6th November
Posted in Election Simulation on November 11, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
Based on the latest polling averages after the new Roy Morgan Poll was published on the 5th of November, we’ve determined the number of seats won by each party in parliament by use of a MC simulation. The results for each of the five biggest parties are shown in the histograms below. Based on the [...]
Polling Update, 6th November
Posted in Polling Update on November 6, 2009 | 1 Comment »
The two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll by Roy Morgan Research (published 5th November). The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2005 NZ General Election, and finishing 60 days from the present. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving [...]
