Electorate seats, continued

Yesterday I started on a general outline of how the electoral seat simulation works. Today I show the results for the number of electoral seats won by each party (the Green Party and New Zealand First are not expected to win any electorate seats, and thus are not shown.)

Histogram showing number of electorate seats won by National. Expected number of seats is 50.3 +- 2.0 (RMS). National are expected to win 47 or more electorate seats at the 95% confidence level.

Histogram showing number of electorate seats won by Labour. Expected number of seats is 11.8 +- 2.2 (RMS). Labour are expected to win 15 or fewer electorate seats at the 95% confidence level.

Histogram showing number of electorate seats won by the ACT party. ACT have a ~91% chance of picking up the Epsom seat.

Histogram showing number of electorate seats won by the Maori Party. Maori party are predicted to most likely win 5 or 6 electorate seats. They are guaranteed to win Tamaki Makaurau, Te Tai Hauauru, Te Tai Tokerau and Waiariki.

Histogram showing number of electorate seats won by the Progressive party. The Progressives have a ~93% chance of picking up the Wigram seat.

Histogram showing number of electorate seats won by United Future. United Future have a ~58% chance of picking up the Ohariu seat.

Also, as hinted at in the post yesterday, the electoral seat simulation is important as it influences the number of overhang seats in Parliament. Based on the simulation the total number of seats in Parliament and the number needed to form a majority are calculated, and the results are summarised in the histograms below.

Histogram showing the total number of seats in Parliament. Expected number of seats is 123.0 +- 1.1 (RMS). In other words, there is expected to be an overhang of 3.0 +- 1.1 seats.

Histogram showing the number of seats needed to form a majority in Parliament. 62 seats in Parliament is expected to probably be enough to form a majority.