A busy week for political polls. After the release of the Roy Morgan Research poll on Friday (already covered in the previous update on Sunday,) there were two additional polls released on Sunday night by TV3 (Reid Research poll) and One News (Colmar Brunton poll). The Colmar Brunton poll shows increases in support for National [...]
Archive for February, 2010
Polling Update, 22nd February
Posted in Polling Update, tagged One News - Colmar Brunton Poll, Polling Analysis, TV3 Reid Research Poll on February 24, 2010 | Leave a Comment »
Polling Update, 21st February
Posted in Polling Update, tagged Roy Morgan Poll on February 21, 2010 | 1 Comment »
The latest NZ political poll was released by Roy Morgan on Friday, February 19. The poll shows an increase in support for the Green party of 2% points and drop in support for the New Zealand First party of 1.5% points relative to the latest Roy Morgan Research poll released two weeks ago. For the [...]
Polling Update, 15th February
Posted in Polling Update, tagged Herald DigiPoll on February 14, 2010 | Leave a Comment »
The latest NZ political poll was conducted by DigiPoll and released by the Herald on February 13. The poll does not show significant changes in support for any of the parties relative to the last Herald-DigiPoll released in late October 2009, and does not significantly alter the polling averages calculated after the latest Roy Morgan [...]
Polling Update, 6th February
Posted in Polling Update, tagged Roy Morgan Poll on February 7, 2010 | 1 Comment »
The latest NZ political poll was released by Roy Morgan on Friday, February 5. The poll does not show significant changes in support for any of the parties relative to the last Roy Morgan poll from late January. As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new [...]
Party Lists and Candidate Election Probabilities
Posted in Election Simulation, Electorate Races, Methodology, Party Lists, Scenario Analysis on February 5, 2010 | 8 Comments »
One of the major goals of this site is to try and predict election results based on recent relevant political polling. This is intended to include not just the total number of seats won by each party, but also viable coalition possibilities and electorate level results. Today I present the simulation results at the candidate [...]
Ohariu 2011
Posted in 2011 NZ General Election, Election Simulation, Electorate Races, Tactical and Strategic Voting, tagged Gareth Hughes, Ohariu, Peter Dunne on February 1, 2010 | 1 Comment »
A few days ago Jeanette Fitzsimons announced her retirement from Parliament, effective February 11th 2009. Ms Fitzsimons will be replaced by Gareth Hughes, who was ranked #11 on the Green Party List for the 2008 NZ General Election. The implications of this move for the other major and minor NZ political parties are potentially far [...]
