New update with 69% of the vote counted. Results now a lot more certain. National to win 60 to 63 seats. Labour to win 32 to 35 seats. Green party to win 13 to 14 seats. A National PM.
Archive for November, 2011
Update 21:31
Posted in Election night update on November 26, 2011 | Leave a Comment »
Update 20:45
Posted in Election night update, tagged National on November 26, 2011 | Leave a Comment »
Still too early to make comments on the electorate results, or results at the candidate level, but things are now stable enough to make national-level predictions. Simulated distribution of seats for National now showing double peak. National a lot better off if NZF don’t make 5% than they are if they do. National still predicted [...]
Update 20:21
Posted in Election night update on November 26, 2011 | Leave a Comment »
Election results now coming from Elections NZ, not TVNZ. NZF creeping up in the new simulated percentages, as the polls are progressively given relatively less weight and Elections NZ results given relatively more weight. Raw party vote percentages for each party:: National : 49.47 % +- 2.39 % Labour : 28.56 % +- 2.16 % [...]
Update 19:39
Posted in Election night update on November 26, 2011 | Leave a Comment »
Blackout over. I will be making periodic updates tonight using a mix of data from the pre-election polls, combined with updates from TVNZ as they come in. Updates from TVNZ will be taken as is, and for the uncounted vote I will assume it falls according to the polls, with a bit of a fudge [...]
Democracy Ahoy!
Posted in Uncategorized, tagged Voting on November 26, 2011 | Leave a Comment »
Never voted in NZ before, and haven’t been here for an election since I was 15. Getting kind of a weird vibe.
Election Day Welcome
Posted in Uncategorized, tagged Welcome on November 26, 2011 | 1 Comment »
Looking at the stats there is a lot of traffic today coming from seach engines, presumably first time visitors. Welcome! Make yourselves at home. Most of you will find what you are looking for on the front page, and for those of you who arrived after a search including the word “epsom”, I’m sure Google [...]
Maori Party Tactical Voting
Posted in Tactical Voting, tagged Maori party on November 25, 2011 | Leave a Comment »
There is a lot of information out there on tactical voting, some of it good, and some not so good. One common misconception though is that there is no point in voting for the Maori party because a vote for the Maori party is a wasted vote, in the sense that it will not help [...]
Final Pre-Election Effective Party Lists
Posted in 2011 NZ General Election, Election Simulation, tagged Effective Party Lists on November 25, 2011 | 1 Comment »
Final effective party lists for the 2011 NZ General Election, based on candidate election probabilites post below. This lists order candidates for each party by the probabilty of being elected to parliament as the lowest ranked successful list candidate for their party. In other words, the probability that a party vote for this party will [...]
Final Pre-Election Candidate Election Probabilites
Posted in 2011 NZ General Election, Election Simulation, tagged Candidate Election Probabilities on November 25, 2011 | 1 Comment »
Shown below are the updated Candidate Election Probabilities based on tonight’s polling update. Please click to embiggen. For an explanation of the methodology please see the original post on individual candidate election probabilities. (Should also point out that I’ve made a couple of manual tweaks to the list this time, as it is the last [...]
Final Pre-Election Polling Update
Posted in 2011 NZ General Election, Polling Update, tagged Herald DigiPoll, Roy Morgan Poll on November 25, 2011 | 1 Comment »
The last two polls to make it out in time for the election are the overnight Roy Morgan Research poll and this morning’s Herald-Digipoll The updated polling averages now have National on 51.4% +/- 0.5%, Labour on 27.1% +/- 0.5%, the Greens on 11.2% +/- 0.3%, NZF on 3.7% +/- 0.2%, ACT on 1.9% +/- [...]
