Final effective party lists for the 2011 NZ General Election, based on candidate election probabilites post below.
This lists order candidates for each party by the probabilty of being elected to parliament as the lowest ranked successful list candidate for their party. In other words, the probability that a party vote for this party will go towards electing this candidate.
For more information please refer to the original effective party lists post.
Effective party list for the National party.
A vote for the National party is a vote for Joanne HAYES (41%), Claudette HAUITI (35%), Sam COLLINS (14%), or Aaron GILMORE (5%).
Effective party list for the Labour party.
A vote for the Labour party is a vote for Deborah MAHUTA-COYLE (36%), Stuart NASH (24%), Rick BARKER (24%), Carmel SEPULONI (7%) or Brendon BURNS (6%).
Effective party list for the Green party.
A vote for the Green party is a vote for David HAY (63%) or James SHAW (35%).
Effective party list for the ACT party.
A vote for the ACT party is a vote for Don Brash (71%) or Catherine ISAAC (26%).
Effective party list for the Maori party.
A vote for the Maori party is a wasted vote, in the sense that it will not help elect anybody to parliament because of the Maori party overhang.
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