Shown below are the updated Candidate Election Probabilities based on tonight’s polling update. Please click to embiggen. For an explanation of the methodology please see the original post on individual candidate election probabilities.
(Should also point out that I’ve made a couple of manual tweaks to the list this time, as it is the last one to be published before the election. I have given the Progressive party’s votes in Wigram to the Labour candidate, who is widely considered to be the most likely to benefit from Jim Anderton not standing, and have given votes to Hone Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau to reflect his likelihood of winning there.)
- Rank: From 0 to 899, gives the respective candidate’s relative likelihood of being elected, and is ordered firstly by probability to be elected, and then by party code and list ranking where there is a tie. Candidates are shown in the table ordered by “rank”.
- Party Code : A unique code for each political party. Parties are numbered 0~7, and ordered firstly by the number of seats won in the 2008 NZ General Election, and secondly by the number of party votes received.
- Party
- List Ranking
- Name: The name of the candidate (as given on the Elections New Zealand website, where available).
- Electorate: The electorate the candidate will stand in. For list-only candidates this will read “list only.”
- Electorate Code : A unique code for the electorate. Electorates are numbered in alphabetical order, with general electorates (#0 ~ #62) preceding Maori electorates (#63 ~ #69). If the candidate is a list-only candidate candidate this code will take the value -1.
- Elect. 08: Blank, for the moment.
- Prob. Electorate: Probabilty of being elected to parliament as an electorate candidate.
- Prob. List: Probabilty of being elected to parliament as a list candidate.
- Prob. Combined: Combined probabilty of being elected to parliament as an electorate candidate.
- Prob. Last: Probabilty of being elected to parliament as the lowest ranked successful list candidate for their party. In other words, the probability that a party vote for this party will go towards electing this candidate.
Probabilities for each candidate to be elected to Parliament through their electorate, through the party list, and the overall combined probability. (PNG, 760kB)
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