The last two polls to make it out in time for the election are the overnight Roy Morgan Research poll and this morning’s Herald-Digipoll
The updated polling averages now have National on 51.4% +/- 0.5%, Labour on 27.1% +/- 0.5%, the Greens on 11.2% +/- 0.3%, NZF on 3.7% +/- 0.2%, ACT on 1.9% +/- 0.2% and the Maori Party on 1.1% +/- 0.2%. Increases for the Greens and New Zealand First are statistically significant relative to the previous update from last night, although only just. Changes for others not statistically significant.
As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on day of the 2011 NZ General Election (26 November 2011). The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.
Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.
Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.
Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.
As far as the election results go, National is still predicted to win an outright majority.
As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.
Please also check back later this evening, as I will have a new post with the updated candidate election probabilites and effective party lists.
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