Blackout over.
I will be making periodic updates tonight using a mix of data from the pre-election polls, combined with updates from TVNZ as they come in. Updates from TVNZ will be taken as is, and for the uncounted vote I will assume it falls according to the polls, with a bit of a fudge factor to counteract the bias from early reporting electorates. Electorates will also be awarded to the winning party where known, otherwise they will be calculated as usual according to the Uniform National Swing model.
It’s a pretty rough system, but I think better than doing nothing and waiting until 1AM before we start hypothesising on coalition outcomes.
I won’t be beating any of the TV stations for electorate level predictions, but hope to give them a run for their money on the composition of parliament. We’ll see if it works.
Raw party vote percentages for each party::
National : 49.44 % +- 2.52 %
Labour : 28.81 % +- 2.28 %
Green : 11.61 % +- 1.41 %
ACT : 1.85 % +- 0.35 %
Maori : 1.03 % +- 0.26 %
Progressive : 0.04 % +- 0.03 %
United : 0.56 % +- 0.26 %
NZ First : 3.88 % +- 0.77 %
All Other : 2.77 % +- 0.36 %
TOTAL : 100.00 % +- 0.00 %
