Still too early to make comments on the electorate results, or results at the candidate level, but things are now stable enough to make national-level predictions.
Histogram showing the total number of seats National are expected to win in parliament.
Simulated distribution of seats for National now showing double peak. National a lot better off if NZF don’t make 5% than they are if they do.
Scenario analysis.
National still predicted to lead government, but probability of majority rapidly falling. There is now a reasonable probability that the Maori party will hold balance of power.
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