[Update: Election results available on the Electoral Commission website.] The 2011 Te Tai Tokerau by-election will be held today. This is the fourth by-election to be held since the 2008 general election, which, whilst not a record, is certainly the most during the last ten terms of parliament. To date I am aware of only [...]
Archive for the ‘Electorate Races’ Category
2011 Te Tai Tokerau By-election
Posted in Election Simulation, Electorate Races, tagged 2011 Te Tai Tokerau By-election, Electorate Seats, iPredict, Polling Simulation on June 25, 2011 | Leave a Comment »
2011 Botany By-Election
Posted in Electoral Reform, Electorate Races, tagged 2011 Botany By-election, Electorate Seats, iPredict, Polling Simulation on March 5, 2011 | 4 Comments »
The 2011 Botany by-election will be held today. As with the 2010 Mana by-election I have attempted to predict the outcome of the election and the share of the votes won by each of the major or minor NZ political party’s candidates using a Monte Carlo simulation of 50,000 NZ general elections held today based [...]
Mana By-Election
Posted in Election Simulation, Electorate Races, tagged 2009 Mt Albert By-election, 2010 Mana By-election, Electorate Seats, iPredict, Polling Simulation on November 20, 2010 | 5 Comments »
The 2010 Mana by-election will be held today. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen any polling in the electorate, and national-level polling over the past few weeks has been sparse, so it’s not very obvious what to expect. In spite of the problems mentioned above, I have attempted to predict the outcome of the election and the [...]
Polling Update, 10th March
Posted in Electorate Races, Polling Update, tagged Candidate Election Probabilities, Roy Morgan Poll on March 11, 2010 | 1 Comment »
The latest NZ political poll was released by Roy Morgan Research on Wednesday, March 10. The poll does not show any significant changes for any of the major or minor NZ political parties relative to either the previous Roy Morgan poll or the most recent Kiwi Poll Guy polling averages. As usual, the two graphs [...]
Party Lists and Candidate Election Probabilities
Posted in Election Simulation, Electorate Races, Methodology, Party Lists, Scenario Analysis on February 5, 2010 | 8 Comments »
One of the major goals of this site is to try and predict election results based on recent relevant political polling. This is intended to include not just the total number of seats won by each party, but also viable coalition possibilities and electorate level results. Today I present the simulation results at the candidate [...]
Ohariu 2011
Posted in 2011 NZ General Election, Election Simulation, Electorate Races, Tactical and Strategic Voting, tagged Gareth Hughes, Ohariu, Peter Dunne on February 1, 2010 | 1 Comment »
A few days ago Jeanette Fitzsimons announced her retirement from Parliament, effective February 11th 2009. Ms Fitzsimons will be replaced by Gareth Hughes, who was ranked #11 on the Green Party List for the 2008 NZ General Election. The implications of this move for the other major and minor NZ political parties are potentially far [...]
