Last updated 4 March after the release of the latest Roy Morgan Research poll (published 2 March).
Polling averages:
Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively. The naive polling average for National is 47.6% +/- 1.3%, for Labour is 29.6% +/- 1.2%, for the Green Party is 12.8% +/- 0.8%, and for the New Zealand First Party is 4.8% +/- 0.5%.
Party vote support for the National party as determined by moving averages of political polls.
Party vote support for the Labour party as determined by moving averages of political polls.
Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.
Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.
Party vote support for the two major NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue) and Labour (red) respectively.
Scenario Analysis:
Scenario analysis for the most recent election simulation. The bar graph shows the probabilities for different possible outcomes for a NZ General Election if held on the date of the current update (please see the top of this page for date.) There is a roughly 26% chance of a National-ACT-United Future coalition, a roughly 33% chance of a Labour-Green-New Zealand First coalition, and a roughly 41% chance that the Maori Party would hold the balance of power in Parliament.
Time series for Scenario Analysis results. Horizontal axis represents the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing at the present. Lines show probabilities of a National-led government (blue), Labour-led government (red) and Maori Party balance of power (black). Since the last election National have been almost guaranteed to either win an outright majority, or to lead a National-ACT or National-ACT-United Future coalition.
Seats in Parliament:
Histogram showing the total number of seats National are expected to win in parliament. National are expected to win 57 +/- 5 (RMS) seats.
Histogram showing the total number of seats Labour are expected to win in parliament. Labour are expected to win 39 +/- 4 (RMS) seats.
Histogram showing the total number of seats the Green Party are expected to win in parliament. The Green Party are expected to win 16 +/- 2 (RMS) seats.
Histogram showing the total number of seats ACT are expected to win in parliament.
Histogram showing the total number of seats the Maori Party are expected to win in parliament.
Histogram showing the total number of seats the Progressive party are expected to win in parliament.
Histogram showing the total number of seats United Future are expected to win in parliament.
Histogram showing the total number of seats New Zealand First are expected to win in parliament.
Total seats, overhang, and majority:
Histogram showing the total number of seats in Parliament. Expected number of seats is 125 +/- 1 (RMS). In other words, there is expected to be an overhang of 5 +/- 1 seats.
Histogram showing the number of seats needed to form a majority in Parliament. The winning party or coalition will most probably need 63 or 64 seats in Parliament to form a majority.
Electorate seats:
Histogram showing number of electorate seats won by National. Expected number of seats is 42 +/- 4 (RMS).
Histogram showing number of electorate seats won by Labour. Expected number of seats is 20 +/- 5 (RMS).
