iPredict 2014 Election update #5

Following on from previous posts, another short update on the iPredict stocks for National and Labour to win the 2014 election.

Daily average trade prices for National broke through the 80c barrier on 26 June, and Labour went below 20c on the same day.  The prices were reasonably stable around those levels for about six weeks until 13 August 2014 when the Dirty Politics scandal broke and National took a steep hit.  Average daily prices for National were below 70c for several days, and bottomed out at about 64c on 22 August, well before Collins’ resignation on 30 August.  The stocks have since rebounded, with National today trading for around 84c, an all-time high.

While there was obvious movement, most likely attributable to fear over the fallout from the Dirty Politics scandal, it was short lived.  As mentioned in the previous post the clock is running out for Labour, which needs to find some sort of game-changer, and there is less and less time left before the election for them to do so.

Graph of prices below:

Daily average trade price, 2014 election winner stocks on iPredict for National (blue) and Labour (red).

Since Dirty Politics was released trading volumes and volatility are up significantly. During the last month there have been over 7,100 trades (National and Labour combined), and total volume was over 115,000.  Since opening on 26 October 2011 the total volumes traded are about 195,000 for National and 173,000 for Labour, so almost 1/3 of total volume traded in the last 3 years has been in the last month.  The stocks definitely aren’t moving about on small volumes.

Weekly volume, 2014 National election victory stock on iPredict.

Weekly volatility, 2014 National election victory stock on iPredict.

The consensus seems to be that this isn’t going to be a particularly close election.

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iPredict 2014 Election update #4

Following on from previous posts, another short update on the iPredict stocks for National winning the 2014 election.

Daily average trade prices for National have trended up towards 80c, and Labour down toward 20c.  Prices are as follows:

Daily average trade price, 2014 election winner stocks on iPredict for National (blue) and Labour (red).

Daily average trade price, 2014 election winner stocks on iPredict for National (blue) and Labour (red).

You can see that the prices for National stabalised just above 70c in April and May after earlier peaking at around 76c in mid-March.  I don’t believe that any single event has caused the prices to move.  It’s more a case of running out the clock; Labour needs some sort of game-changer, and there is less and less time left before the election for them to find one.

Weekly trade volumes are up, and now amount to about 1600 shares per week, or $1100 per week.

Weekly volume, 2014 National election victory stock on iPredict.

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iPredict 2014 Election #3

Following on from previous posts, another update on the iPredict stocks for National winning the 2014 election.

Daily average trade prices are as follows:

Daily average trade price, 2014 election winner stocks on iPredict for National (blue) and Labour (red).

And zoomed in on the last nine months, starting just before Shearer resigned as leader:

Daily average trade price, 2014 election winner stocks on iPredict for National (blue) and Labour (red).

After topping out at $0.78 on 28 March prices for NATIONAL have stabalised in the low 70% range.

Things have not really gotten better for Labour, with the split now fairly stable at 70/30 odds over the last month.  The book is still a little asymmetrical, stronger on the bid side than the ask side, although there is a bit more room for the price to move around than there was previously.

I still think National’s chances to win are priced a little high, but at 70% it’s close enough that I’m not going to bother throwing money at it to try and fix it.

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Billboards

I’ve spent a few weekends over the last month or so driving around the southern North Island, taking in both Kapiti and Wairarapa sides of the Tararua ranges, and have been doing a bit of a billboard count as I went.  Should point out that the following takes in major and minor state highways and some properly rural stuff, in addition to the greater Wellington region:

• National: 29 (54% +/- 7%)
• Labour: 12 (22% +/- 6%)
• Green: 5
• ACT: 0
• Maori: 4
• NZF: 4

Okay, so it’s not exactly a scientific survey, but the thing that struck me was that the proportion of National and Labour billboards was within the margin of error of their recent polling.  This was true over pretty much any 50km stretch and didn’t seem to depend on electorate, and I started wondering about cause and effect.  Are National doing well in the polls because of all their billboards?  Or are the number of billboards are reflection of their funding and volunteer numbers?  I suspect it could be a bit of both.  (I should also note that this is just the number I saw from the driver’s seat.  I hear there are a few Labour billboards sitting down side streets, or facing perpendicular to the road, which I probably missed.)

The other thing that stood out was the difference in content:

• The National party was running a variety of billboards, and they would change from week to week.  Candidate billboards, billboards with PM and National party leader John Key, as well as stuff trying to introduce policy (“Building better roads and …”) and general, ambiguous “For a Brighter Future” stuff.
• The Labour party billboards were singularly introducing electorate candidates.  Nothing else.  I saw a large black sign that said “STOP ASSET SALES” which may have been Labour, but it wasn’t 100% obvious.
• The Green party billboards were of the appeal-to-emotion type: pictures of happy people with the phrase “For a Richer NZ”.  No policy, no candidates, no party-leaders.

I just thought the differences were interesting, and the overall impression was that the National campaign is much more determined and better executed.

For a different conclusion, please see Kiwi Politico.

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