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Archive for October, 2009

The two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after new polls by Roy Morgan Research (published 21st October) and Reid for TV3 (published 15th October). The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2005 NZ General Election, and finishing 60 days from the present. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Moving averages of party vote

Party vote support for the 8 major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue), respectively.

Moving averages of party vote

Party vote support for the 6 minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue), respectively.

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Welcome

Welcome to Kiwi Poll Guy. This is a site devoted to NZ political polling, and trying to predict the results of a NZ General Election by use of a Monte Carlo Simulation.

I am also interested in the upcoming Referenda on MMP that will be held concurrently with the 2011 NZ General Election, and hope to use this blog to study some of the proposed alternative electoral systems.

Most of the work will be on these various simulations, rather than this site itself, so it might be a bit scruffy for the near future. If you have any comments, criticism or advice, please get in touch. I can be reached at kiwipollguy@gmail.com.

The first proper post tomorrow will give a summary of the current state of polling for the party-vote.

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