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Archive for December, 2009

The latest NZ political poll was released by Roy Morgan on the 18th December. The poll shows an increase in support of 2.5% for the Green Party, and a corresponding drop in support of 3.0% for the Labour Party relative to the last Roy Morgan poll. Other parties are largely unchanged.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2005 NZ General Election, and finishing 60 days from the present. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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The latest NZ political poll was released by Reid Research for TV3 on the 13th December. The poll shows a decrease in support of 4.7% for the National Party, and a corresponding rise in support of 3.6% for the Labour Party relative to the last Reid poll published a couple of months ago on the 15th of October.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2005 NZ General Election, and finishing 60 days from the present. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Much of the commentary from the mainstream media strongly emphasise a Labour Party gain in the polls, and either directly or indirectly attribute the gain to specific recent events. Stuff’s article “Goff makes gains in latest poll” and an identical article in The New Zealand Herald, for example, claim that

Labour leader Phil Goff has finally managed to take a small chunk out of National’s sky high political popularity … TV3’s latest poll includes the public reaction to Mr Goff’s attack on the “shabby deal” between National and the Maori Party over the emissions trading scheme, which he said benefited the Maori elite.

It’s not obvious, however, that National’s ratings have changed at all since their highs earlier this year. Individual polls will normally have fairly large margins of error; for example, about 3% (calculated at the 68% confidence level) on National’s ratings for the last two Reid polls. On that basis, National would need to hemorrhage a lot more than 5% of their support between polls before you could be confident you were seeing an actual, statistically meaningful decline.

The Kiwi Poll Guy moving averages seem to tell a different story. They currently have National on 55.3% +- 1.5%, compared to a post-election peak of 56.3% +- 0.9% on the 10th of October and 54.3% +- 0.9% on the 15th of February – a full ten months ago. Not only is it not obvious what effect the ETS legislation, “hikes in ACC levies,” and “the furore over Maori Party MP Hone Harawira” have had on National’s polling, it’s not even obvious there have been any changes in support at all. While there appear to have been small rises and falls of the order of 1% or so in the last ten months, it is difficult to assert as much with any statistical certainty.

Labour’s polling tells a similar story. The moving averages currently have them on 30.1% +- 1.1%, compared to 29.2% +- 0.7% ten months ago. During that time Labour have fluctuated by 1~2%, although any gains and losses appear to be more at the expense of the Green Party, ACT, and New Zealand First rather than National.

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The latest NZ political poll was released by Roy Morgan on the 7th December. The poll shows a small increase of 2% in support for the National Party, and a drop of 2.5% in support for the Labour Party relative to the last Roy Morgan poll.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2005 NZ General Election, and finishing 60 days from the present. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Based on the current polling averages National would be expected to win 65.7 +- 1.8 (RMS) seats in parliament, almost – but not quite – a guaranteed outright majority. Labour is expected to win 39.6 +- 1.6 (RMS) seats.

Please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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The latest NZ political poll was a TV One Colmar Brunton poll released on the 29th November. Unfortunately I couldn’t find any information about it on the Colmar Brunton website, so I’ve had to go with a news article from Stuff instead. The poll doesn’t show a huge change from the last Colmar Brunton poll in September, and agrees fairly well with the latest Roy Morgan poll.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2005 NZ General Election, and finishing 60 days from the present. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Based on the current polling averages National would be expected to win 65.2 +- 1.7 (RMS) seats in parliament, almost – but not quite – a guaranteed outright majority. Labour is expected to win 39.8 +- 1.5 (RMS) seats.

In other news, I have figured out a way to update the graphs page automatically when I rerun the simulations after a new poll is released. Please have a look there to see the updated polling averages, updated Scenario Analysis graphs, overhang predictions, and predictions for the distribution of electorate seats and total seats won by each party in Parliament.

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