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Archive for March, 2010

Apologies for the lack of recent updates. I’ve been overseas for the last couple of weeks preparing to move house, and the workload combined with very intermittent internet access has meant I’ve gotten a bit behind with posts. I have a handful of half-written drafts on electoral reform and the iPredict stocks which should hopefully appear over the next week or so.

Firstly though, just a short word on the time stamps on posts. The timestamps show when the posts first become public: “March 31, 2010,” for this post, for example. The post titles, however, refer to the date used when running the election simulation discussed in the relevant post, in this case March 20th, 2010. This simulation date is normally a day or two after the release of the most recent polls and sometimes earlier than the date of the relevant post in which it is published. The simulation date is also the date shown for the most recent update on the Graphs page. Sorry for any confusion.

The latest NZ political poll was released by Roy Morgan Research on Thursday, March 18. Taken on its own, the poll does not show any significant changes for any of the major or minor NZ political parties relative to either the previous Roy Morgan poll or the most recent Kiwi Poll Guy polling averages. However, the poll seems to be consistent with a gradual decline in support for National, and a gradual increase in support for Labour, that seems to have begun in about October 2009.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2005 NZ General Election, and finishing 60 days from the present. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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The latest NZ political poll was released by Roy Morgan Research on Wednesday, March 10. The poll does not show any significant changes for any of the major or minor NZ political parties relative to either the previous Roy Morgan poll or the most recent Kiwi Poll Guy polling averages.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2005 NZ General Election, and finishing 60 days from the present. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Seeing as it’s been over a month since I updated the election probabilities for individual candidates I have included the updated list below. Please see the original post on candidate election probabilities for a rough outline of the methodology. The table contains one new column with respect to the previous version: Elect. 08, which will show either “Electorate” if the candidate was elected to the 49th Parliament as an electorate MP, or “List” if the candidate was elected as a list candidate. David Shearer is listed with the tag “Electorate”, as he is an electorate MP for Mount Albert in the 49th Parliament, even though he was elected to Parliament in the 2009 Mount Albert by-election and not the 2008 General Election. Similarly Gareth Hughes, David Clendon, Cam Calder and Damien O’Conner are tagged as “List.”

Probabilities for each candidate to be elected to Parliament

Probabilities for each candidate to be elected to Parliament through their electorate, through the party list, and the overall combined probability.

There haven’t been too many big changes since the last update.

Additionally, after the last Candidate Election Probability post David Farrar at Kiwiblog did a post on the electorate results for each of the current electorate MP’s. For ease of viewing, here is the above table showing only the candidates that served as electorate MP’s in the 49th Parliament (ordered by their respective electorate’s Electorate Code.)

Probabilities for reigning electorate candidates to be elected to Parliament

Probabilities for reigning electorate candidates to be elected to Parliament through their electorate, through the party list, and both.

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