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Archive for June, 2010

Firstly, apologies for the slow update. I’ve had no internet access for most of the last couple of days after a truck took out overhead phone lines. In other news, how good is New Zealand’s broadband infrastructure?

The latest NZ political polls were the fortnightly Roy Morgan Research poll released on Friday, June 18, and a TV3-Reid Research poll released on Sunday, June 20.

The polls between them indicate a significant rise in support for the National Party and a significant drop in support for the Labour Party relative to the previous polling averages. In the previous polling update I said that

It is not obvious at this stage whether the [June 5 Roy Morgan] poll is a statistical fluctuation or whether it represents actual movement on the back of the 2011 Budget, which was released on May 20. We will probably need at least another two polls to make a determination one way or the other.

In hindsight, it appears to be a bit of both. After the release of the poll the updated Kiwi Poll Guy polling averages have National on 53.5% +- 1.4% and Labour on 31.2% +- 1.1%, compared with support of 49.3% +- 1.5% and Labour on 33.2% +- 1.1% on June 5th. The changes of +4.2% and -1.9% seem significant. On the other hand, a naive chi-square test for the four polls released since the budget gives a result of 6.5 for 3-ish degrees of freedom, which isn’t particularly brilliant. This indicates moderate disagreement between the polls, so the latest averages should be interpreted with a degree of caution.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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The latest NZ political poll was released by Roy Morgan Research on Friday, June 4. The poll shows a significant rise in support for the National Party and a significant drop in support for the Labour Party relative to the previous poll. It is not obvious at this stage whether the poll is a statistical fluctuation or whether it represents actual movement on the back of the 2011 Budget, which was released on May 20. We will probably need at least another two polls to make a determination one way or the other.

After the release of the poll the updated Kiwi Poll Guy polling averages have National on 49.3% +- 1.5%, Labour on 33.2% +- 1.1%, and the Green Party on 7.8% +- 0.5%.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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