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Archive for August, 2010

Apologies for the lack of recent updates. I have recently started a new job and relocated to Wellington, but I’m still setting up house and don’t yet have proper internet access. Due to bandwith issues this polling update will be graph-less, but the major results are included below.

The latest NZ political poll was the fortnightly Roy Morgan Research poll released on Tuesday, August 25. The poll does not show significant changes for any of the eight major or minor political parties. The results of the usual simulation are as follows:

  • The naive polling average for National is 50.5% +- 1.7%, for Labour is 33.1% +- 1.7%, and for the Green Party is 7.5% +- 0.9%.
  • National have a 76% chance of winning an outright majority in Parliament, and there is a further 22% chance that National and ACT will have a majority between them.
  • National are expected to win 63.0 +- 2.0 (RMS) seats, Labour are expected to win 41.0 +- 2.0 (RMS) seats, and the Green Party are expected to win 9.3 +- 1.3 (RMS) seats.
  • New Zealand First are estimated to have a 0.5% chance of crossing the 5% threshold and being returned to Parliament.
  • The ACT party are estimated to have a 98% chance of winning the Epsom electorate and being returned to Parliament, assuming Uniform National Swing relative to the 2005 and 2008 General Elections.
  • The United Future party are estimated to have an 83% chance of winning the Ohariu electorate and being returned to Parliament, assuming Uniform National Swing relative to the 2005 and 2008 General Elections.
  • Labour are estimated to have a 94% chance, and National a 6% chance, of winning the Mana electorate if a by-election were held today, and assuming Uniform National Swing (UNS) relative to the 2005 and 2008 General Elections.  Due to methodology issues arising from the UNS assumption, however, the 94% for Labour is most likely an underestimate.
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After a period of sparse political polling, last weekend saw the release of three new polls: the fortnightly Roy Morgan Research poll was released on Friday, August 6, and polls from TV3-Reid Research and One News-Colmar Brunton were released on August 8.

The three polls show fairly poor agreement between them, but the overall polling averages haven’t changed significantly since just before the Budget on May 20. The updated Kiwi Poll Guy polling averages have National on 51.4% +- 1.3%, Labour on 32.6% +- 1.2%, and the Greens on 7.8% +- 0.7%,

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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