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Archive for September, 2010

The latest NZ political poll was the One News-Colmar Brunton poll released on Sunday, September 26. The poll shows a significant rise in support for the National Party and a significant drop in support for the Labour Party relative to the previous One News-Colmar Brunton poll, but does not alter the moving polling averages by much. The averages now have National on 50.3% +/- 1.7% and Labour on 33.4% +/- 1.6%.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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Broadband! Sweet, sweet broadband:

Broadband

Broadband

Except it isn’t really, is it? I guess I always just assumed that “broadband” would deliver about 100Mbps uploads, so the new house is underwhelming by a factor of about a thousand. Anyway, back to the task at hand.

Since the last update two fortnightly Roy Morgan Research polls have been released: 7 September and 16 September. The polls seem to show a small but significant decline in support for the National Party relative to the levels seen at the height of the Ministerial expenses scandal in early June. The updated Kiwi Poll Guy polling averages have National on 49.7% +/- 1.9%, Labour on 34.1% +/- 1.8%, and the Greens on 7.3% +/- 1.0%, although it should be noted that the lack of recent polling has caused the errors on the averages to blow up.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Also shown below are the Candidate Election Probabilities. For an explanation of the methodology please see the original post on individual candidate election probabilities.

Probabilities for each candidate to be elected to Parliament through their electorate, through the party list, and the overall combined probability.

Probabilities for each candidate to be elected to Parliament through their electorate, through the party list, and the overall combined probability.

There haven’t been too many big changes since the last update in March, although one that does stand out is that there are now nine candidates from the New Zealand First party in the top 170 positions.

For ease of viewing, the results for candidates serving as electorate MP’s in the 49th Parliament are also shown below, ordered by the probability of retaining their electorate.

Probabilities for reigning electorate candidates to be elected to Parliament through their electorate, through the party list, and both.

Probabilities for reigning electorate candidates to be elected to Parliament through their electorate, through the party list, and both.

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