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Archive for May, 2011

Another busy week for NZ political polls: Roy Morgan Research have released their latest fortnightly poll, along with polls from One News-Colmar Brunton and TV3-Reid Research. The updated polling averages now have National on 52.9% +/- 1.2% and Labour on 31.5% +/- 1.1%. In hindsight, the previous TV3-Reid Research poll that had National on 57.5% and Labour on 27.1% was most-likely a statistical fluctuation.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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Another two fortnightly polls from Roy Morgan Research have been released: 4-17 April and 18 April-1 May. The updated polling averages now have National on 53.3% +/- 1.9% and Labour on 31.6% +/- 1.8%. The previous TV3-Reid Research poll that had National on 57.5% and Labour on 27.1% is already starting to look like a statistical outlier.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Read Full Post »