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Archive for July, 2011

Today’s poll is the new (monthly?) Herald-Digipoll for July. There are no major changes to the polling averages. The updated polling averages now have National on 52.2% +/- 1.0%, Labour on 30.9% +/- 0.9%, the Greens on 7.8% +/- 0.5%, New Zealand First on 2.4% +/- 0.4%, and ACT on 2.2% +/- 0.4%.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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Another new fortnightly poll from Roy Morgan Research. The updated polling averages now have National on 52.4% +/- 1.0%, Labour on 30.9% +/- 1.0%, the Greens on 7.6% +/- 0.5%, New Zealand First on 2.4% +/- 0.5%, and ACT on 2.4% +/- 0.4%.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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Today’s poll is from Fairfax Media. It is the first Fairfax Media poll since early November 2008, just before the previous general election, and looking at their polling behaviour from 2008 we can probably expect about one Fairfax Media poll per month until November.

The updated polling averages now have National on 52.5% +/- 1.1%, Labour on 30.6% +/- 1.0%, the Greens on 7.7% +/- 0.5%, New Zealand First on 2.5% +/- 0.5% and ACT on 2.4% +/- 0.4%. Changes since the last update are not statistically significant, although the recent trend that has Labour down slightly by 2% +/- 1% from a couple of months ago is still visible.

More interestingly, changes since the previous Fairfax poll in 2008 aren’t really statistically significant either. I still can’t see any big changes in polling for most parties since early 2009.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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And another new poll from Roy Morgan Research. The updated polling averages now have National on 52.3% +/- 1.2%, Labour on 30.3% +/- 1.1%, the Greens on 8.3% +/- 0.6%, and ACT on 2.5% +/- 0.4%

The movement seen after the last two polls by One News-Colmar Brunton and TV3-Reid Research has been dampened a bit, but the results still appear to show small movement for Labour and the Greens relative to a month or so ago.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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The latest NZ political poll is the new One News-Colmar Brunton poll for July.

The updated polling averages now have National on 53.0% +/- 1.2%, Labour on 29.5% +/- 1.1%, and the Greens on 8.7% +/- 0.6%. The movement in the averages for Labour and the Green Party appear to be statistically significant, with the Green Party gaining, very roughly, about 2% +/- 1% support at the expense of Labour relative to a previous update on 4 July 2011. Changes for other parties do not appear to be statistically significant.

The small rise for National in the previous TV3-Reid Research poll have been reversed, so it seems reasonable to conclude that the TV3-Reid Research poll was a bit of a statistical fluctuation, as predicted in the last update.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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The latest NZ political poll is the now six-weekly(?) TV3-Reid Research poll.

After taking the usual average of the polls there appears to be slight movement for National and Labour, although the TV3-Reid Research polls have shown a bit of discrepancy with the others lately, so I’m reluctant to attribute any changes to actual movement without a few more polls to confirm it. The updated polling averages now have National on 54.4% +/- 1.3%, Labour on 30.6% +/- 1.2%, and the Greens on 7.8% +/- 0.6%.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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Since the last update just nine days ago we have seen new polls from Roy Morgan Research and Herald-DigiPoll. I’ve also added the May Herald-DigiPoll that I had missed previously, although I don’t think it’s affected the results too much. Hopefully Herald-DigiPoll will be publishing monthly from now until the election.

After taking the usual average of the polls there once again doesn’t seem to be any statistically significant changes for any of the parties, although there may have been a small increase in support for the ACT Party over the last couple of months. The updated polling averages now have National on 52.2% +/- 1.4%, Labour on 32.6% +/- 1.3%, the Greens are on 6.7% +/- 0.7%, and ACT appear up slightly to 2.7% +/- 0.5%

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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