Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Archive for August, 2011

The new monthly polls from TV3-Reid Research and One News-Colmar Brunton are now out. Unfortunately, detailed results don’t seem to be online yet, but Stuff has a summary of the results.

The updated polling averages now have National on 53.4% +/- 1.1%, Labour on 30.1% +/- 1.0%, the Greens on 7.9% +/- 0.5%, NZF on 2.5% +/- 0.4%, ACT on 2.0% +/- 0.4% and the Maori Party on 1.9% +/- 0.2%.

Relative to an earlier polling update from 20 July, about a month ago, there is practically no movement. Keep in mind, however, that at that time the point of interest was that Labour was down about 2% +/- 1% from a few months previously. There is nothing in the last month to indicate that this trend has really changed. National are also up about 1% +/- 1% since a month or so ago, possibly at the expense of several of the minor parties, although the movement is within the margin of error. (See below for a graph of the Labour Party polling averages.)

I should mention I’ve made a small change to the graphs: they now show the raw polling results for each individual poll, whereas previously they showed the polling results after correcting for pollster bias and pollster induced error. Not a huge difference, but probably fairer and less confusing to just go with the raw results. The moving averages and error band should be unchanged.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the Labour Party

Party vote support for the Labour Party, starting 60 days before the 2008 election and finishing on the present day. A statistically significant drop in support of about 3% +/- 1% is visible relative to six months ago.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Read Full Post »

The new fortnightly poll from Roy Morgan Research is now out. The updated polling averages now have National on 52.1% +/- 1.2%, Labour on 31.4% +/- 1.1%, the Greens on 7.6% +/- 0.6%, NZF on 2.6% +/- 0.6% and ACT on 2.2% +/- 0.4%. Changes are not statistically significant.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Read Full Post »