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Archive for September, 2011

It’s been about a month since the last update, and in that time we’ve had six new polls: two polls from Roy Morgan Research (1, 2), and one each from TV3-Reid Research, One News-Colmar Brunton, Herald-DigiPoll and Fairfax Media.

The updated polling averages now have National on 54.0% +/- 1.2%, Labour on 28.9% +/- 1.1%, the Greens on 8.4% +/- 0.6%, NZF on 2.8% +/- 0.5%, ACT on 1.9% +/- 0.4% and the Maori Party on 1.9% +/- 0.3%.

Relative to an earlier polling update from 21 August, about a month ago, Labour is down about 1% +/- 1%. The averages have National and the Greens each up about 0.5% +/- 1% relative to a month or so ago; not statistically significant movements on their own, but consistent with the pattern of them both picking up support from Labour’s downward trend over the last half-year or so.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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