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Archive for October, 2011

The latest poll is the new fortnightly Roy Morgan Research poll, published 18 October.

The updated polling averages now have National on 54.6% +/- 1.2%, Labour on 28.6% +/- 1.1%, the Greens on 9.7% +/- 0.6%, NZF on 1.9% +/- 0.5%, ACT on 1.6% +/- 0.4% and the Maori Party on 1.7% +/- 0.4%. The polling averages are pretty much unchanged from the previous update.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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Two more polls: the new monthly(?) polls from TV3-Reid Research and One News-Colmar Brunton.

The updated polling averages now have National on 54.3% +/- 0.9%, Labour on 28.5% +/- 0.8%, the Greens on 9.9% +/- 0.4%, NZF on 2.0% +/- 0.3%, ACT on 1.6% +/- 0.3% and the Maori Party on 1.7% +/- 0.3%.

The polling averages give National a gain of about 2% +/- 1%, completely cancelling out the drop of 2% +/- 1% mentioned in the previous update yesterday. It’s a bit of a strange movement, but it seems reasonable to assume that yesterday’s update was just a statistical fluctuation. The Greens are again showing a small increase putting them just below the 10% mark.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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Two more polls from Roy Morgan Research and Fairfax Media have been published in the last week. Unfortunately I didn’t have time to include the two new polls from the 6PM news tonight in the calculations, but I’ll do another update in a day or two.

The updated polling averages now have National on 52.2% +/- 1.2%, Labour on 29.9% +/- 1.1%, the Greens on 9.4% +/- 0.6%, NZF on 2.4% +/- 0.5%, ACT on 1.8% +/- 0.4% and the Maori Party on 1.9% +/- 0.3%.

Relative to the last polling update National is down about 2% +/- 1%. The new numbers have National more in line with their average for the last year. The average for the Greens is up about 0.5% again, a statistically insignificant change, but continuing a consistent upward trend seen over the last six months or so.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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