I’ve spent a few weekends over the last month or so driving around the southern North Island, taking in both Kapiti and Wairarapa sides of the Tararua ranges, and have been doing a bit of a billboard count as I went. Should point out that the following takes in major and minor state highways and some properly rural stuff, in addition to the greater Wellington region:
- National: 29 (54% +/- 7%)
- Labour: 12 (22% +/- 6%)
- Green: 5
- ACT: 0
- Maori: 4
- NZF: 4
Okay, so it’s not exactly a scientific survey, but the thing that struck me was that the proportion of National and Labour billboards was within the margin of error of their recent polling. This was true over pretty much any 50km stretch and didn’t seem to depend on electorate, and I started wondering about cause and effect. Are National doing well in the polls because of all their billboards? Or are the number of billboards are reflection of their funding and volunteer numbers? I suspect it could be a bit of both. (I should also note that this is just the number I saw from the driver’s seat. I hear there are a few Labour billboards sitting down side streets, or facing perpendicular to the road, which I probably missed.)
The other thing that stood out was the difference in content:
- The National party was running a variety of billboards, and they would change from week to week. Candidate billboards, billboards with PM and National party leader John Key, as well as stuff trying to introduce policy (“Building better roads and …”) and general, ambiguous “For a Brighter Future” stuff.
- The Labour party billboards were singularly introducing electorate candidates. Nothing else. I saw a large black sign that said “STOP ASSET SALES” which may have been Labour, but it wasn’t 100% obvious.
- The Green party billboards were of the appeal-to-emotion type: pictures of happy people with the phrase “For a Richer NZ”. No policy, no candidates, no party-leaders.
I just thought the differences were interesting, and the overall impression was that the National campaign is much more determined and better executed.
For a different conclusion, please see Kiwi Politico.
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