Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Archive for the ‘2011 NZ General Election’ Category

Final effective party lists for the 2011 NZ General Election, based on candidate election probabilites post below.

This lists order candidates for each party by the probabilty of being elected to parliament as the lowest ranked successful list candidate for their party. In other words, the probability that a party vote for this party will go towards electing this candidate.

For more information please refer to the original effective party lists post.

Effective party list for the National party.

Effective party list for the National party.

A vote for the National party is a vote for Joanne HAYES (41%), Claudette HAUITI (35%), Sam COLLINS (14%), or Aaron GILMORE (5%).

Effective party list for the Labour party.

Effective party list for the Labour party.

A vote for the Labour party is a vote for Deborah MAHUTA-COYLE (36%), Stuart NASH (24%), Rick BARKER (24%), Carmel SEPULONI (7%) or Brendon BURNS (6%).

Effective party list for the Green party.

Effective party list for the Green party.

A vote for the Green party is a vote for David HAY (63%) or James SHAW (35%).

Effective party list for the ACT party.

Effective party list for the ACT party.

A vote for the ACT party is a vote for Don Brash (71%) or Catherine ISAAC (26%).

Effective party list for the Maori party.

Effective party list for the Maori party.

A vote for the Maori party is a wasted vote, in the sense that it will not help elect anybody to parliament because of the Maori party overhang.

Advertisements

Read Full Post »

Shown below are the updated Candidate Election Probabilities based on tonight’s polling update. Please click to embiggen. For an explanation of the methodology please see the original post on individual candidate election probabilities.

(Should also point out that I’ve made a couple of manual tweaks to the list this time, as it is the last one to be published before the election. I have given the Progressive party’s votes in Wigram to the Labour candidate, who is widely considered to be the most likely to benefit from Jim Anderton not standing, and have given votes to Hone Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau to reflect his likelihood of winning there.)

  1. Rank: From 0 to 899, gives the respective candidate’s relative likelihood of being elected, and is ordered firstly by probability to be elected, and then by party code and list ranking where there is a tie.  Candidates are shown in the table ordered by “rank”.
  2. Party Code : A unique code for each political party.  Parties are numbered 0~7, and ordered firstly by the number of seats won in the 2008 NZ General Election, and secondly by the number of party votes received.
  3. Party
  4. List Ranking
  5. Name: The name of the candidate (as given on the Elections New Zealand website, where available).
  6. Electorate: The electorate the candidate will stand in. For list-only candidates this will read “list only.”
  7. Electorate Code : A unique code for the electorate.  Electorates are numbered in alphabetical order, with general electorates (#0 ~ #62) preceding Maori electorates (#63 ~ #69). If the candidate is a list-only candidate candidate this code will take the value -1.
  8. Elect. 08: Blank, for the moment.
  9. Prob. Electorate: Probabilty of being elected to parliament as an electorate candidate.
  10. Prob. List: Probabilty of being elected to parliament as a list candidate.
  11. Prob. Combined: Combined probabilty of being elected to parliament as an electorate candidate.
  12. Prob. Last: Probabilty of being elected to parliament as the lowest ranked successful list candidate for their party.  In other words, the probability that a party vote for this party will go towards electing this candidate.
Probabilities for each candidate to be elected to Parliament

Probabilities for each candidate to be elected to Parliament through their electorate, through the party list, and the overall combined probability. (PNG, 760kB)

Read Full Post »

The last two polls to make it out in time for the election are the overnight Roy Morgan Research poll and this morning’s Herald-Digipoll

The updated polling averages now have National on 51.4% +/- 0.5%, Labour on 27.1% +/- 0.5%, the Greens on 11.2% +/- 0.3%, NZF on 3.7% +/- 0.2%, ACT on 1.9% +/- 0.2% and the Maori Party on 1.1% +/- 0.2%. Increases for the Greens and New Zealand First are statistically significant relative to the previous update from last night, although only just. Changes for others not statistically significant.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on day of the 2011 NZ General Election (26 November 2011). The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the Green party

Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.

 Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As far as the election results go, National is still predicted to win an outright majority.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Please also check back later this evening, as I will have a new post with the updated candidate election probabilites and effective party lists.

Read Full Post »

I’ve spent a few weekends over the last month or so driving around the southern North Island, taking in both Kapiti and Wairarapa sides of the Tararua ranges, and have been doing a bit of a billboard count as I went.  Should point out that the following takes in major and minor state highways and some properly rural stuff, in addition to the greater Wellington region:

  • National: 29 (54% +/- 7%)
  • Labour: 12 (22% +/- 6%)
  • Green: 5
  • ACT: 0
  • Maori: 4
  • NZF: 4

Okay, so it’s not exactly a scientific survey, but the thing that struck me was that the proportion of National and Labour billboards was within the margin of error of their recent polling.  This was true over pretty much any 50km stretch and didn’t seem to depend on electorate, and I started wondering about cause and effect.  Are National doing well in the polls because of all their billboards?  Or are the number of billboards are reflection of their funding and volunteer numbers?  I suspect it could be a bit of both.  (I should also note that this is just the number I saw from the driver’s seat.  I hear there are a few Labour billboards sitting down side streets, or facing perpendicular to the road, which I probably missed.)

The other thing that stood out was the difference in content:

  • The National party was running a variety of billboards, and they would change from week to week.  Candidate billboards, billboards with PM and National party leader John Key, as well as stuff trying to introduce policy (“Building better roads and …”) and general, ambiguous “For a Brighter Future” stuff.
  • The Labour party billboards were singularly introducing electorate candidates.  Nothing else.  I saw a large black sign that said “STOP ASSET SALES” which may have been Labour, but it wasn’t 100% obvious.
  • The Green party billboards were of the appeal-to-emotion type: pictures of happy people with the phrase “For a Richer NZ”.  No policy, no candidates, no party-leaders.

I just thought the differences were interesting, and the overall impression was that the National campaign is much more determined and better executed.

For a different conclusion, please see Kiwi Politico.

Read Full Post »

Shown below are the updated Candidate Election Probabilities based on tonight’s polling update. Please click to embiggen. For an explanation of the methodology please see the original post on individual candidate election probabilities.

Probabilities for each candidate to be elected to Parliament through their electorate, through the party list, and the overall combined probability.

Probabilities for each candidate to be elected to Parliament through their electorate, through the party list, and the overall combined probability. (PNG, 770kB)

Will follow tomorrow with some analysis, but for the mean time there are two points that stand out:

  1. With the number of recent polls the margins of error on the polling averages has shrunk, meaning there are less candidates on the above list.  There are only about 140 or so candidates with a chance of winning a seat, so if the polls are correct there won’t be too many surprises on election night.
  2. The results for Labour (but not so much for National) are heavily dependent on the electorate results, which aren’t necessarily modelled realistically given that National are polling so much higher than they were at either of the two previous general elections.  Many of Burns (#29, Christchurch Central), Tirikatene (#45, Te Tai Tonga), Hipkins (#42, Rimutaka), Lees-Galloway (#37, Palmerston North), Wood (#32, list only), Chadwick (#34, Rotorua), O’Conner (West Coast-Tasman, electorate only) and Sutton (#35, Waikato) are in for a disappointing night, but it’s difficult to tell exactly which at the moment.  For more info see Kiwiblog.

Will calculate the effective party lists tomorrow before the 12PM blackout, but for the moment they look as follows:

  1. National: Hayes (#64, Dunedin South), Hauiti (#63, Mangare), Collins (#66, Wigram)
  2. Labour: Nash (#27, Napier), Burns (#29, Christchurch Central), Mahuta-Coyle (#26, Tauranga)
  3. Green: Shaw (#15), Hay (#16)

Read Full Post »

Pundit has a post up by Rob Salmond looking at the trends from a linear regression to recent poll results, which they then extrapolate to the election.  They have National winning 50.8% of the vote at the election, Labour, 24.8% and the Greens 14.6%.  The results are pretty much within the margin of error of the predictions here, but the whole concept of doing a linear regression and extrapolating the results forward is a bit sloppy.  For some reason it just reminds me of the statistical analysis I’ve come to expect from The Standard.

There is a lot wrong with this approach, but instead of going through it I will just quote another blog post from earlier this year.  From Pundit.  By Rob Salmond.

When a pundit says “if this trend continues to the election,” stop listening

The original piece was a must-read.

Read Full Post »

There has been a bit of hysteria the last few days about dire consequences if New Zealand First should be returned to parliament. See PM John Key on Stuff, or the Vote For Change campaign’s highly ignorable press releases, for example.

So what’s going on? A couple of recent polls have the NZF party closing in on the 5% threshold, and the probability of NZF being returned to Parliament has shot up to about 50% on iPredict, from about 15% just over a week ago.

Probability of New Zealand First being returned to parliament according to iPredict, as of evening of 20 November, 2011.

Probability of New Zealand First being returned to parliament according to iPredict, as of evening of 20 November, 2011.

On top of this, NZF leader Winston Peters has made a point of saying he won’t go in to coalition with anybody, or support anybody with supply and confidence, leading observers to assume that if NZF wins seats in parliament this election everything will turn to custard and we will be having another election in the next few months.

So what would actually happen if NZF were returned to parliament?

The current situation.

To figure this out we run a series of simulations, firstly based on the current polling avereges. We call this “Situation #0”. It looks something like this:

Histogram showing the total number of seats National are expected to win in parliament under Situation #0. National are expected to win 65.4 +/- 0.8 (RMS) seats.

Histogram showing the total number of seats National are expected to win in parliament under Situation #0. National are expected to win 65.4 +/- 0.8 (RMS) seats.

Histogram showing the total number of seats Labour are expected to win in parliament under Situation #0.  Labour are expected to win 35.4 +/- 0.8 (RMS) seats.

Histogram showing the total number of seats Labour are expected to win in parliament under Situation #0. Labour are expected to win 35.4 +/- 0.8 (RMS) seats.

Keep in mind that a party would need 63 seats to win a majority:

Histogram showing the number of seats needed to form a majority in Parliament under Situation #0. The winning party or coalition will most probably need 63 seats in Parliament to form a majority.

Histogram showing the number of seats needed to form a majority in Parliament under Situation #0. The winning party or coalition will most probably need 63 seats in Parliament to form a majority.

So National is therefore almost guaranteed an outright majority in the house:

Scenario analysis for Situation #0. The bar graph shows the probabilities for different possible outcomes for a NZ General Election.  The National Party would have a roughly 99.98% chance of governing alone, a roughly 0.02% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT coalition, and a 0% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT-United Future coalition. There is a 0% chance that the Maori Party would hold the balance of power in Parliament.

Scenario analysis for Situation #0. The bar graph shows the probabilities for different possible outcomes for a NZ General Election. The National Party would have a roughly 99.98% chance of governing alone, a roughly 0.02% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT coalition, and a 0% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT-United Future coalition. There is a 0% chance that the Maori Party would hold the balance of power in Parliament.

So there you have it.

What if NZF makes 5%?

And what would happen if NZF just makes the 5% threshold? Firstly lets simulate this by assuming that NZF takes the same number of votes from National and Labour such that they get exactly 5%. We call this “Situation #1”. Under Situation #1 NZF would win exactly 6 seats. And the other parties?

Histogram showing the total number of seats National are expected to win in parliament under Situation #1. National are expected to win 62.1 +/- 0.8 (RMS) seats.

Histogram showing the total number of seats National are expected to win in parliament under Situation #1. National are expected to win 62.1 +/- 0.8 (RMS) seats.

Histogram showing the total number of seats Labour are expected to win in parliament under Situation #1. Labour are expected to win 33.2 +/- 0.8 (RMS) seats.

Histogram showing the total number of seats Labour are expected to win in parliament under Situation #1. Labour are expected to win 33.2 +/- 0.8 (RMS) seats.

So with NZF taking 1% or so of the vote from each of National and Labour and winning 6 seats, National and Labour would respectively be 3.3 and 2.2 seats worse off. The fallout is not just limited to those two parties either; the Greens, for example, would be 0.5 seats worse off. And who would form the government?

Scenario analysis for Situation #1. The bar graph shows the probabilities for different possible outcomes for a NZ General Election.  The National Party would have a roughly 25.1% chance of governing alone, a roughly 70.5% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT coalition, and a roughly 4.1% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT-United Future coalition. There is a 0.3% chance that the Maori Party would hold the balance of power in Parliament.

Scenario analysis for Situation #1. The bar graph shows the probabilities for different possible outcomes for a NZ General Election. The National Party would have a roughly 25.1% chance of governing alone, a roughly 70.5% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT coalition, and a roughly 4.1% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT-United Future coalition. There is a 0.3% chance that the Maori Party would hold the balance of power in Parliament.

So if NZF takes votes off National and Labour equally and makes the 5% threshold there is a much reduced chance of National getting a majority, but we would still have a National Prime Minister. Winston Peters wouldn’t be in a position to force another election.

What if the votes come exclusively from National?

And what would happen if NZF just makes the 5% threshold, and takes their extra votes exclusively from current National supporters. We call this “Situation #2”. Under Situation #2 NZF would still win exactly 6 seats, and National would be as follows:

Histogram showing the total number of seats National are expected to win in parliament under Situation #2. National are expected to win 61.2 +/- 0.8 (RMS) seats.

Histogram showing the total number of seats National are expected to win in parliament under Situation #2. National are expected to win 61.2 +/- 0.8 (RMS) seats.

Scenario analysis for Situation #2. The bar graph shows the probabilities for different possible outcomes for a NZ General Election. The National Party would have a roughly 4.4% chance of governing alone, a roughly 69.6% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT coalition, and a roughly 21.1% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT-United Future coalition. There is a roughly 5.0% chance that the Maori Party would hold the balance of power in Parliament (with a National-coalition advantage).

So if NZF takes votes solely off National and just makes the 5% threshold there is a much reduced chance of National getting a majority, but we would still most likely get a National Prime Minister, even without taking the Maori Party into consideration. Winston Peters almost certainly wouldn’t be in a position to force another election.

What if NZF makes 7%, and the votes come exclusively from National?

Now lets assume that NZF wins exactly 7% of the vote, with their extra votes coming exclusively from current National supporters. We call this “Situation #3”. Under Situation #3 the results would be as follows:

Histogram showing the total number of seats NZF are expected to win in parliament under Situation #3. NZF are now expected to win 8.7 +/- 0.4 (RMS) seats.

Histogram showing the total number of seats NZF are expected to win in parliament under Situation #3. NZF are now expected to win 8.7 +/- 0.4 (RMS) seats.

Histogram showing the total number of seats National are expected to win in parliament under Situation #3. National are expected to win 58.6 +/- 0.7 (RMS) seats.

Histogram showing the total number of seats National are expected to win in parliament under Situation #3. National are expected to win 58.6 +/- 0.7 (RMS) seats.

Scenario analysis for Situation #3. The bar graph shows the probabilities for different possible outcomes for a NZ General Election.  The National Party would have a 0% chance of governing alone, a roughly 0.4% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT coalition, and a roughly 4.5% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT-United Future coalition. There is a roughly 95.5% chance that the Maori Party would hold the balance of power in Parliament (still most likely with a National-coalition advantage).

Scenario analysis for Situation #3. The bar graph shows the probabilities for different possible outcomes for a NZ General Election. The National Party would have a 0% chance of governing alone, a roughly 0.4% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT coalition, and a roughly 4.5% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT-United Future coalition. There is a roughly 95.5% chance that the Maori Party would hold the balance of power in Parliament (still most likely with a National-coalition advantage).

So even under the rediculously optimistic scenario of NZF doubling their current support in the next six days, with the new support coming solely off National, the Maori party would still most-likely hold the balance of power in parliament.

And what would the Maori party do? Coalition with National, ACT and United Future? Or coalition with Labour, Greens, Mana and New Zealand First? Even assuming that the latter four parties were all on the same page (unfeasible, given recent statements from their leaders), would the Maori party favour them? Not likely if a three-party right-wing coalition had a numbers advantage over the four-party left-wing coalition. It would be far too easy (politically) for the Maori Party to go into a right-wing coalition, and extract some fairly heavy concessions whilst doing so.

Conclusion.

So, in summary, even if NZF win 7% of the vote, which is unlikely on current polling, the chances of them holding a balance of power and forcing another election are effectively zero. Anybody who suggests otherwise is just being a bit hysterical.

Read Full Post »

Older Posts »