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Archive for the ‘Election night update’ Category

Update 21:31

New update with 69% of the vote counted.  Results now a lot more certain.

Total seats for National party.

Total seats for National party.

National to win 60 to 63 seats.

Total seats for the Labour party.

Total seats for the Labour party.

Labour to win 32 to 35 seats.

Total seats for the Green party.

Total seats for the Green party.

Green party to win 13 to 14 seats.

Scenario analysis.

Scenario analysis.

A National PM.

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Update 20:45

Still too early to make comments on the electorate results, or results at the candidate level, but things are now stable enough to make national-level predictions.

Histogram showing the total number of seats National are expected to win in parliament.

Histogram showing the total number of seats National are expected to win in parliament.

Simulated distribution of seats for National now showing double peak. National a lot better off if NZF don’t make 5% than they are if they do.

Scenario analysis.

Scenario analysis.

National still predicted to lead government, but probability of majority rapidly falling. There is now a reasonable probability that the Maori party will hold balance of power.

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Update 20:21

Election results now coming from Elections NZ, not TVNZ.

NZF creeping up in the new simulated percentages, as the polls are progressively given relatively less weight and Elections NZ results given relatively more weight.

Raw party vote percentages for each party::
National : 49.47 % +- 2.39 %
Labour : 28.56 % +- 2.16 %
Green : 11.82 % +- 1.34 %
ACT : 1.85 % +- 0.33 %
Maori : 1.08 % +- 0.24 %
Progressive : 0.04 % +- 0.03 %
United : 0.59 % +- 0.24 %
NZ First : 4.22 % +- 0.73 %
All Other : 2.06 % +- 0.34 %
TOTAL : 100.00 % +- 0.00 %

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Update 19:39

Blackout over.

I will be making periodic updates tonight using a mix of data from the pre-election polls, combined with updates from TVNZ as they come in. Updates from TVNZ will be taken as is, and for the uncounted vote I will assume it falls according to the polls, with a bit of a fudge factor to counteract the bias from early reporting electorates. Electorates will also be awarded to the winning party where known, otherwise they will be calculated as usual according to the Uniform National Swing model.

It’s a pretty rough system, but I think better than doing nothing and waiting until 1AM before we start hypothesising on coalition outcomes.

I won’t be beating any of the TV stations for electorate level predictions, but hope to give them a run for their money on the composition of parliament. We’ll see if it works.

Raw party vote percentages for each party::
National : 49.44 % +- 2.52 %
Labour : 28.81 % +- 2.28 %
Green : 11.61 % +- 1.41 %
ACT : 1.85 % +- 0.35 %
Maori : 1.03 % +- 0.26 %
Progressive : 0.04 % +- 0.03 %
United : 0.56 % +- 0.26 %
NZ First : 3.88 % +- 0.77 %
All Other : 2.77 % +- 0.36 %
TOTAL : 100.00 % +- 0.00 %

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