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Archive for the ‘Party Lists’ Category

Missed the boat. Appears that while I was drafting the last post on party lists the Labour Party announced their party list for the 2011 Election.

It’s too early to figure out who the winners and losers are (except Ashraf Choudhary, who is a loser); I can’t run any simulations yet as I need a corresponding list showing in which electorate each party list candidate will stand. Having said that, if I was Phil Twyford (#33), Stephanie (Steve) Chadwick (#34) or Iain Lees-Galloway (#37) I would be a bit disappointed.

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In a post a few days ago on effective party lists I took a few swipes at those drawing up the party lists, but didn’t really offer any constructive criticism. I thought I should probably try to remedy that, so I’ve drawn up a few tips on party list ordering for those drawing them up. (I should warn that what follows is 100% opinion and 0% science.)

There’s two reasons that those drawing up the party list should give thought to the resulting effective lists. Firstly, some voters will be looking at them, one way or another, when deciding for which party they should cast their vote. Not many though; realistically most will just glance at the top of the list, if they bother to check at all. Secondly, there is chance of causing a “Tizard Problem” (NB scare quotes to distance myself from the term), or a “Ward Problem” if you prefer to look at the precedent set by the Green Party in 2008.

In both cases, however, the work-around is the same: you want to structure the party list such that you get appropriate candidates sitting at the top of the effective party list immediately prior to the election. I think that ideally you would want the effective party list to look a bit like this:

  1. Popular candidates (excluding party leadership and senior MPs) who lost toss-up (battleground) electorates.
  2. Popular list-only candidates standing for the first time.

The reason I think this is the ideal structure for an effective party list is that it doesn’t give any of the other parties any ammunition to criticize those next in line if they are to come into Parliament post-election due to a retirement or by-election, and therefore gives a party more flexibility with their strategy during the upcoming term of Parliament. I think there is also a bit of dissatisfaction with MMP allowing rejected candidates back in to Parliament “through the back door,” especially with post-election retirements and so forth, something that would be less of an issue with list-only candidates or candidates that were unlucky enough to lose a close electorate battle. I think there is also more sympathy in these situations for young, first-time, or otherwise up-and-coming politicians than there would be for a long-term parliamentarian who is seen as having already had a fair crack at the job.

Given the above conditions, and assuming you know roughly how well a party will be polling, you can figure out where the sweet spot is on the party list and then reverse-engineer an optimal list. I think the party lists should ideally look something like this:

  1. Popular senior MPs and party leadership.
  2. Other popular candidates in safe electorates.
  3. Popular first-time list-only candidates being choppered in to Parliament.
  4. Unpopular list-only candidates and candidates predicted to lose their electorate seats, who, for one reason or another, must be returned to parliament.

    === Party list sweet spot ===

  5. Popular candidates (excluding party leadership and senior MPs) who are standing in toss-up electorates.
  6. Popular list-only candidates standing for the first time.
  7. Unpopular candidates in toss-up electorates.
  8. Unpopular candidates in safe electorates.
  9. Other token list-only candidates.

There are several advantages to this template for a party list in addition to it resulting in an attractive effective party list as mentioned above. In particular, it gets the more popular candidates and senior leadership to the top of the list where they are most visible, and manages to bury the unpopular candidates who must be returned to parliament by the list, whilst still giving them a safe enough position. Unpopular candidates in safe electorate seats are also buried out of sight at the bottom of the list, without affecting their chances of being returned to Parliament. The low placings for those in toss-up seats may also serve as extra encouragement for them to get out and campaign, for the party vote as well as the electorate vote, obviously.

Of course, it’s not quite this simple in practice, because the sweet spot will move around a bit depending on the order of the list, so the whole process has to be done iteratively. Nevertheless, I think the above serves as a good guide, for the two major parties at least.

I have no idea how the parties actually go about ordering their lists in practice, but would hope they have somebody going through them and running through a few potential scenarios. If anybody wants me to run through a hypothetical party list for them before it is finalised then I would be more than happy to. I suspect, though, that we are instead in for a lesson in poor planning.

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When I first published a post on the probabilities of being elected on a candidate-by-candidate basis last year I mentioned that the main motivation was that I hoped that people will be able to see which individual list candidate their party vote is likely to be counted for.

Closer to the 2011 General Election I will begin publishing “effective party lists” on a regular basis. These effective lists will show only those candidates on the cusp of winning a list seat for each party, and will hopefully give NZ voters a better idea of where their vote is going, and a more meaningful alternative to a quick glance at the top of the lists for each party which some seem to use now when deciding how to cast their votes.

I think this is still quite important information, and I want to make sure it is available publicly immediately before the 2011 General Election so that people can make a more-informed party vote. But recently another benefit has become obvious: helping parties to avoid the so-called “Tizard Problem.” Since Darren Hughes announced his resignation last week there has been speculation that Labour will ask the next highest placed list candidate, Judith Tizard, to stand aside in order to allow a lower ranked list candidate to filter through to Parliament. There were also suggestions on some blogs that the party didn’t want to stand list MPs in the by-elections for safe Labour seats in Mana and Mt Albert because that would have allowed Tizard back into Parliament, thus limiting their options for candidate selection for the by-elections.

I’m not sure how accurate these theories are of what the Labour Party strategists are actually thinking, and I’m not going to speculate, but if they are true, then they represent a massive failure on the part of those who determined the Labour Party List for the 2008 Election.

After a bit of thought I’ve decided that preventing a hypothetical “Tizard Problem” basically just involves figuring out the effective party lists for each of the parties. Specifically, figuring out who your party vote is going to help get elected is simply a case of figuring out who the lowest ranked list candidate to win a list seat for the party that you voted for is. And this is basically the same problem as figuring out who the highest ranked list candidate to not be awarded a seat is. This can be calculated from the results of the election simulation we use here to figure out which candidates get in to Parliament, and which miss out. The methodology is the same as that for the other simulations on this site.

By simulating a large number of elections based on current opinion polling, and counting up the number of times each party list candidate is the lowest-ranked list candidate to be elected for their party, we can see who the party votes for each party are going towards electing. The results are shown below for each of the eight major and minor NZ political parties, with the probability of a candidate being the lowest-ranked list candidate to be elected for their party shown under the heading “Prob. Last” in the right-most column. The effective party lists are ordered by decreasing values of “Prob. Last.” The party list rankings of the candidates shown at the tops of these lists correspond to the “sweet spots” on each respective parties list, in other words, the list rankings that could potentially result in a “Tizard Problem” for those parties during the next term of Parliament if they were to be filled by electorally unpopular candidates.

The first example is for the Green Party, one of the easier results to understand.

Effective party list for the Green Party

Effective party list for the Green Party.

First place on the Green Party effective party list is Steffan Browning, with list ranking #9 and standing in the Kaikoura electorate. He has a 0% chance of winning his electorate seat, a 79% chance of getting in on the list, and a 32% chance of being the lowest ranked Green party candidate to be elected. In other words, if you vote for the Green party with your party vote there is a 32% chance that your vote will go towards electing Browning. The effective party list then skips up and down the actual party list, with Mathers (list ranking #10), Hughes (#8) and Ward (#11) following. The reason Hughes (#8) is below Browning (#9) is because whilst he is slightly more likely to be elected, he is less likely to be the last person elected. For the same reason, highly-ranked list candidates such as co-leaders Metiria Turei and Russel Norman are almost guaranteed to be elected whether you vote for the Greens or not, and thus have low effective party list rankings of #10 and #11, respectively.

If you add up the numbers for “Prob. Last” in the far right column you will get 100% (give or take a bit of rounding error), which means there is a 100% chance that your party vote for the Green Party will go towards getting somebody elected from their list.

Next up is the Maori party.

Effective party list for the Maori Party

Effective party list for the Maori Party.

Nothing interesting is happening here, with the effective party list exactly matching the order of the actual party list, and candidates either winning an electorate seat or not being returned to Parliament. This is because of the overhang caused by the Maori Party, with the party winning more electorate seats than the total number of seats they would be entitled to based on their party vote.

If you add up the numbers for “Prob. Last” in the far right column you will get 0%, which means there is a 0% chance that your party vote for the Maori party will go towards getting somebody elected from their list. In other words, a party vote for the Maori Party is a guaranteed “wasted” vote.

The examples for both the Green and Maori parties are easy enough to understand intuitively, but things get a bit more complicated when you look at parties that may win both electorate and list seats, such as the ACT party.

Effective party list for the ACT Party

Effective party list for the ACT Party.

First up is John Boscawen, with a 31% chance of being the lowest ranked list candidate elected, followed by Roger Douglas (5%) and Heather Roy (0%, rounded down). In fourth place on the effective list is party leader Rodney Hide, with 0% chance of being the lowest ranked candidate. The reason for this is that ACT Party Leader Hide, like Maori Party leader Pita Sharples, will either win his electorate seat or not return to Parliament. Unlike #2 – #4 on the ACT party list he has no chance of winning a list spot on current polling (where ACT are well below the 5% threshold).

If you add up the numbers for “Prob. Last” in the far right column you will get 36%, which means there is a 36% chance that your party vote for the ACT party will go towards getting somebody elected from their list. In other words, there is a 74% chance that a party vote for the ACT party will be a wasted vote. More specifically, there is a 4% chance that a party vote for the ACT party will be a wasted vote because Hide will lose Epsom and nobody from ACT will be elected, and there is a 70% chance that a party vote for the ACT party will be a wasted vote because although Hide wins Epsom, the party does not get enough party votes for somebody else to join him as a list MP.

The three patterns above explain most of the possible outcomes as far as effective party lists go, and for the other parties the effective party lists just behave as a combination of the patterns seen above. Next is National:

Effective party list for the National Party

Effective party list for the National Party.

The sweet spot on the list here belongs to Ravi Musuku (Mt. Albert, list ranking #63), Mita Harris (Mangere, #62) and Marc Alexander (Wigram, #60). These are the people your party vote will be going towards getting elected if you party-vote National.

What happened to those on the list ranked #61 (Malcolm Plimmer) and #64 (Jonathan Young)? They’re on the effective list as well, just a bit further down. The reason is that for them to be the lowest ranked National candidates to win a list seat they would have to first lose their electorate seats, New Plymouth and Palmerston North, which are National-leaning seats. (Yes, I’m aware that New Plymouth and Palmerston North are not traditionally considered “National-leaning seats.” The individual electorate results are modeled on the principle of Uniform National Swing). This is why you have to take the results in individual electorate seats into account when trying to figure out where your party vote is going!

Next is the Labour Party:

Effective party list for the Labour Party

Effective party list for the Labour Party.

A vote for the Labour Party is most likely going to go to Damien O’Conner (West Coast-Tasman, #32), Grant Robertson (Wellington Central, #34), or Iain Lees-Galloway (Palmerston North, #36). All three face a difficult battle to win their electorate seats on current polling.

Judith Tizard is still on the effective party list in #9 position, with a 5% chance of being the lowest ranked Labour list candidate to win a list seat in Parliament.

Next up, the Progressive Party and the United Future Party:

Effective party list for the Progressive Party

Effective party list for the Progressive Party.

Effective party list for the United Future Party.

Effective party list for the United Future Party.

These two show a pattern very similar to that shown by the ACT Party. In all three cases you have a party leader with a non-100% chance of winning an electorate seat, and a party that is not guaranteed to break the 5% threshold to get seats without the electorate waiver, which results in a non-zero possibility of a wasted vote. In all three cases the wasted vote can be caused by the leader failing to win their electorate seat, or by winning their electorate seat but the party not having a high enough party vote to elect other list MPs along with them.

Finally, the New Zealand First Party.

Effective party list for the New Zealand First party

Effective party list for the New Zealand First party.

Another fairly intuitive result. With NZF polling about 4% at the moment, they are within a margin-of-error or so from breaking the 5% threshold, which, like the Green Party, would see them win list seats even though they are not predicted to win an electorate seat. The sweet spot on the NZF party list corresponds to candidates with list rankings of #6 and #7.

Obviously the results above are purely hypothetical, given that they are based on old party lists from the 2008 General Election that have been modified arbitrarily to take account of retirements and so on during the current term of Parliament. I look forward to whipping up new lists when the finalised party lists for the 2011 General Election are made public.

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One of the major goals of this site is to try and predict election results based on recent relevant political polling. This is intended to include not just the total number of seats won by each party, but also viable coalition possibilities and electorate level results.

Today I present the simulation results at the candidate level, including probabilities for each major or minor party candidate to be elected to parliament by either winning an electorate or being selected off their party list. First though, in the interests of disclosure, I thought I should release the data I’m using for the party lists. The 2008 Party Lists are available in MS Excel (.xlsx) format [82kB].

The simulation requires the party lists to be input in the form of a list linking each candidate to the electorate they stood for (or else indicating they were a list only candidate.) The list is based largely on the information on the Party lists for the 2008 General Election page on the Elections New Zealand website, and the electorate information from the Candidates by electorate page from Wikipedia, and is amended at discretion.

The data format is as follows:

  1. Party Code : A unique code for each political party.  Parties are numbered 0~7, and ordered firstly by the number of seats won in the 2008 NZ General Election, and secondly by the number of party votes received.
  2. Party
  3. List Ranking
  4. Name : The name of the candidate as given on the Elections New Zealand website.
  5. Electorate : The electorate the candidate stood in. For list-only candidates this will read “list only.”
  6. Electorate Code : A unique code for the electorate.  Electorates are numbered in alphabetical order, with general electorates (#0 ~ #62) preceding Maori electorates (#63 ~ #69). If the candidate is a list-only candidate candidate this code will take the value -1.

For computational reasons each major or minor party candidate standing in an electorate must have a list ranking. In order to avoid having this requirement affect the results the lists are simply extended to 100 candidates for each party, with electorate-only candidates placed in the lowest ranked positions such that they will never be elected to a list seat. The intermediate positions are then filled with dummy candidates: for example, the candidate “NAT-74-list only” refers to the 74th ranked candidate on the National Party list, with the “list only” suffix indicating that they are a list-only candidate. Please feel free to use or amend the file at will. Corrections gratefully accepted.

The current simulation, however, does not use the 2008 Party Lists. Instead it references an alternative list that has been amended to take into consideration changes during the current term of Parliament. This current list used for the simulation is also available in MS Excel (.xlsx) format [82kB]. A summary of changes is as follows:

  1. Labour : The list reflects the retirements of Helen Clark and Michael Cullen during the term of Parliament. Candidates ranked #3 (Phil Goff) onwards are moved up two list places each. Current Parliamentary members are moved up in the list ahead of unsuccessful candidates (ahead of list candidate #42 Judith Tizard). A new candidate replacing Helen Clark (David Shearer, Mount Albert) is included, ranked #41 and inserted into the list ahead of Judith Tizard. A new dummy list candidate (“LAB-77-list only”) is inserted in position #77 in place of Michael Cullen.
  2. National : Richard Worth (unsuccessful candidate for Epsom, list rank #23) is removed, and subsequent candidates are moved up one rank. A new dummy candidate for Epsom (“NAT-67-Epsom”) is inserted in position #67 in his place.
  3. Green : Jeanette Fitzsimons (list-only candidate, list rank #1) and Sue Bradford (candidate for East Coast Bays, list rank #3) are removed, and subsequent candidates moved up. A new dummy candidate for East Coast Bays (“GRE-66-East Coast Bays”) is inserted in position #66 replacing Sue Bradford. A new dummy list candidate (“GRE-67-list only”) is inserted in position #67 in place of Jeanette Fitzsimons.

The above modifications are only intended to capture the spirit of changes since the beginning of the term of parliament and are of course subject to change when the parties release their official party lists closer to the date of the 2011 General Election. If anybody has any serious objections – or is just curious how things would work out with different party lists – and is willing to provide an updated list in the same format then I would be happy to rerun any simulations.

The candidate level results of the most recent simulation (January 22nd, after the release of the latest Roy Morgan Research poll) are shown in the table below (please click for an enlarged view.)

Probabilities for each candidate to be elected to Parliament

The table gives the probabilities for each candidate to be elected to Parliament by winning an electorate, by being elected from their party list, and an overall probability for either method combined. The “Rank” column gives the respective candidate’s relative likelihood of being elected, and is ordered firstly by probability to be elected, and then by party code and list ranking where there is a tie. Probabilities are rounded to the nearest percent.

The first 89 ranked candidates are guaranteed to be elected, and will of course win 89 seats between them. Candidates ranked 90 through to 114 are considered highly likely to be elected, and each have individual probabilities in the 90% to 100% range. These 25 candidates are expected to win a further 24.6 seats between them, for a cumulative total of 113.6 seats in Parliament. After this we get to the marginal list and electorate candidates: those ranked 115 through to 135 have probabilities in the 10% to 90% range. These 21 candidates are expected to win a further 9.4 seats between them, for a cumulative total of 123.0 seats in Parliament. Next we have 14 more canadidates ranked 136 through to 149 who are considered highly unlikely to be elected to Parliament, with probabilities of less than 10% each. These 14 candidates are expected to win only 0.2 seats between them, bringing the cumulative total to 123.2 seats – an expected overhang of 3.2 seats. Finally, candidates ranked 150 through 800 (many not shown in the table for ease of viewing) have no chance of being elected to Parliament based on current polling data.

I realise that the above calculations may seem little more than trivia at the moment given that we are so far out from the next election, and that the finalised party lists and electorate candidates will not be known for a long time. However, the main motivation for doing this simulation is a hope that people will be able to see which individual list candidate their party vote is likely to be counted for. Closer to the 2011 General Election I will begin publishing “effective party lists” on a regular basis. These effective lists will show only those candidates on the cusp of winning a list seat for each party, and will hopefully give NZ voters a better idea of where their vote is going, and a more meaningful alternative to a quick glance at the top of the lists for each party which some seem to use now when deciding how to cast their votes.

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