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Archive for the ‘Polling Update’ Category

New polls are starting to come out a bit quicker now, three from Roy Morgan Reasearch (1, 2, 3), and the first post-election One News-Colmar Brunton poll. I guess I will have to go back to semi-regular once-per-month or so updates.

The updated polling averages now have National on 48.2% +/- 1.5%, Labour on 29.3% +/- 1.3%, the Greens on 13.0% +/- 0.9% and NZF on 4.8% +/- 0.6%. Changes from the previous polling update are not statistically significant!

As usual, the graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), and United Future (purple), respectively.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), and United Future (purple), respectively.

Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.

Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), and United Future (purple), respectively.

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), and United Future (purple), respectively.

A couple of points to note. The Greens have been holding steady at about 13% +/- 1% since a month or so before the election – about 2% higher than they actually polled. National are holding steady at about 48% +/- 1%, also slightly higher than they recorded at the last election. Labour, on the other hand, look to have had a bit of a rise, peak, and fall since the election, but it’s not necessarily statistically significant. Occam’s razor says that they are polling at 28% +/- 1%, where they have been since a couple of months or so before the election.

The other point to note is the talk on Twitter and the blogs about the credibility of the recent Morgan Poll results. National, for example, went from 48.5% two polls ago down to 44.0% (a drop of 4.5%) and then back up to 49.5% (a rise of 5.5%). On the face of it this looks a bit strange, but keep in mind that the error on National’s polling is about 2%, and relative to this the fluctuations aren’t huge. On top of that, previous post-election polls had them at 47.0%, 46.0%, 45.5%, 45.5%, all well within a reasonable margin of error. Taken alone these previous results show, if anything, too little fluctuation. But whenever you deal with political polls, or any numbers with an element of randomness, you should expect periods of little fluctuation followed by some large swings. That’s just how randomness works. Given the small sample sizes on the Morgan Polls of ~800 respondents (cf. 1000 for Colmar Brunton) they seem pretty credible.

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In the first post-election update we have five new polls to work with, four from Roy Morgan Reasearch (1, 2, 3, 4) and a TV3-Reid Research poll.

The updated polling averages now have National on 47.6% +/- 1.3%, Labour on 29.6% +/- 1.2%, the Greens on 12.8% +/- 0.8% and NZF on 4.8% +/- 0.5%.

The first point to note is that these numbers are a lot closer to the actual 2011 election result than they are to the final pre-election polling update. What happened? One possible explanation is that a significant minority of voters made up their minds on who they would vote for at the 2011 election a day or so beforehand – too late to show up in any of the polls – and haven’t changed their support since. It seems a bit too suspicious though. I can’t think of any other obvious explanations.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), and United Future (purple), respectively.

Party vote support for the Green party

Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), and United Future (purple), respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results. Unfortunately, though, because there have been only five polls in the last three months the margins of error have blown out, and the graphs aren’t particularly meaningful. In addition, you will notice a strange double-peaked graph for the number of seats National are expected to win. This is a result of unpredictability in whether or not NZF make the 5% threshold, and the graph is basically the sum of two Gaussians: one for when NZF gets over 5% and one for when they get less than 5%. If NZF continues to hover around the 5% mark I will have to think up a better way to present these results. Note also that it is pretty much impossible to predict who would be in government from the recent polls, due, again, to the large margin of error.

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The last two polls to make it out in time for the election are the overnight Roy Morgan Research poll and this morning’s Herald-Digipoll

The updated polling averages now have National on 51.4% +/- 0.5%, Labour on 27.1% +/- 0.5%, the Greens on 11.2% +/- 0.3%, NZF on 3.7% +/- 0.2%, ACT on 1.9% +/- 0.2% and the Maori Party on 1.1% +/- 0.2%. Increases for the Greens and New Zealand First are statistically significant relative to the previous update from last night, although only just. Changes for others not statistically significant.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on day of the 2011 NZ General Election (26 November 2011). The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the Green party

Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.

 Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As far as the election results go, National is still predicted to win an outright majority.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Please also check back later this evening, as I will have a new post with the updated candidate election probabilites and effective party lists.

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The latest polls are the new One News-Colmar Brunton and TV3-Reid Research polls released this evening, 24 November.

The updated polling averages now have National on 51.7% +/- 0.5%, Labour on 27.5% +/- 0.5%, the Greens on 11.9% +/- 0.3%, NZF on 3.3% +/- 0.3%, ACT on 1.8% +/- 0.2% and the Maori Party on 1.3% +/- 0.2%. Changes are not statistically significant relative to the previous update.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on day of the 2011 NZ General Election (26 November 2011). The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the Green party

Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As far as the election results go, National is still predicted to win an outright majority.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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The latest poll is the new Fairfax Media poll from this morning, 23 November.

The updated polling averages now have National on 51.7% +/- 0.6%, Labour on 27.8% +/- 0.6%, the Greens on 11.6% +/- 0.4%, NZF on 3.5% +/- 0.2%, ACT on 1.5% +/- 0.1% and the Maori Party on 1.6% +/- 0.1%. Changes are not statistically significant relative to the previous update.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on day of the 2011 NZ General Election (26 November 2011). The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the Green party

Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As far as the election results go, National is still predicted to win an outright majority.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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I have updated the polling averages and graphs with the new poll by Roy Morgan Research from Saturday that unfortunately wasn’t quite in time for that day’s update.

The updated polling averages now have National on 51.9% +/- 0.6%, Labour on 27.7% +/- 0.6%, the Greens on 11.5% +/- 0.4%, NZF on 3.5% +/- 0.4%, ACT on 1.5% +/- 0.2% and the Maori Party on 1.7% +/- 0.1%. Changes are not statistically significant relative to the previous update.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on day of the 2011 NZ General Election (26 November 2011). The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the Green party

Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As far as the election results go, National is still predicted to win an outright majority, although we are starting to get to the stage where any further drops in support for National may start to have consequences (as long as they are polling over 51% it doesn’t really matter how well they do, from a who’s-in-government perspective). The simulation currently gives National a 99.96% chance of winning an outright majority, and a 0.04% chance of leading a National-ACT coalition.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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This update is based on 14 new polls published between 23 October to 18 November. I won’t list them all, but they can all be found on the Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2011 page on Wikipedia. Much thanks to whomever is updating that page.

The updated polling averages now have National on 51.8% +/- 0.6%, Labour on 27.8% +/- 0.6%, the Greens on 11.5% +/- 0.4%, NZF on 3.5% +/- 0.3%, ACT on 1.6% +/- 0.2% and the Maori Party on 1.6% +/- 0.1%. Relative to the last update a month ago, the polling averages show a statistically significant drop in support for National of 3% +/- 2%, and rise for the Greens of 2% +/- 1%. There has also been a rise for New Zealand First of about 2% +/- 1%.

The drop for National has them about back at their average for the last 24 months, and NZF are still about where they were six months or so ago. The Greens’ rise, however, comes on the back of a series of smaller rises going back about six months or so. The are up roughly 4% +/- 1% on from their typical 7% support through most of this electoral cycle (see graph below).

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the Green party

Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As far as the election results go, National is still predicted to win an outright majority, although we are starting to get to the stage where any further drops in supprt for National may start to have consequences (as long as they are polling over 51% it doesn’t really matter how well they do, from a who’s-in-government perspective). The simulation currently gives National a 99.98% chance of winning an outright majority, and a 0.02% chance of leading a National-ACT coalition.

Scenario analysis for the most recent election simulation.

Scenario analysis for the most recent election simulation. The bar graph shows the probabilities for different possible outcomes for a NZ General Election if held on the date of the current update (please see the top of this page for date.) The National Party would have a roughly 100% chance of governing alone, a roughly 0% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT coalition, and a roughly 0% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT-United Future coalition. There is a roughly 0% chance that the Maori Party would hold the balance of power in Parliament.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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