Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Following on from my recent victory as New Zealand’s Next Top Political Pundit after the 2014 election I’ve decided to go all-in on National winning the the Northland by-election being held today.  A month-or-so ago I thought they were absolutely guaranteed to win, and started buying iPredict stocks on a National victory at around 80c-90c.  Later in the campaign prices dropped, but I still felt they were underpriced and have continued buying.  Total outlay at the moment is about $221 on 559 stocks (including shorts on OTHER), so an average price of $0.3960.  I haven’t bothered selling/covering, so I’m fairly exposed here, but I just don’t think Peters can win.

National to win was last trading at $0.1192, so as far as iPredict is concerned I’m pretty out of line.  It will be interesting to see the results.  But I think I have a decent number of pundits on my side:

I also agree with most of Danyl’s sentiments in his March 10 piece: What is Labour’s optimum strategy in Northland?

If Peters wins the by-election that will be bad for National and great for Winston Peters, but those don’t add up to a win for the Labour Party… the optics of Peters single-handedly defeating National while Labour stands back, powerless aren’t very good for the Labour Party.

And Claire Trevett’s piece in The Herald.

If he does succeed in putting the “win” into Winston, Labour could be handing National a future coalition partner.

… If Peters wants to hold the seat come 2017, cuddling up to Labour is risky territory. So, if Peters holds the balance of power in 2017, Labour could well find its gift to NZ First was a gift to National in disguise.

I think that to form a viable alternative government Labour needs to poll in the low 40s, and I just don’t think they can do that without taking a few votes off NZF and the Greens.  Regardless of the actual result today, standing aside in a by-election and looking like Peters’ backup team isn’t a good long-term strategy for them.

One additional point I haven’t seen made is that Labour standing aside for Peters’ benefit is also not very fair to Labour’s candidate Willow-Jean Prime.  In a general election candidates are willing to stand in impossible seats because there is the unspoken promise of a winnable spot on the list.  That’s not the case in by-elections — there isn’t really any upside at all for the losing major-party candidate — which makes it hard to recruit somebody who isn’t a major liability to stand (even in a general election some major parties still have trouble.)  The only real payoff for all the hard work is a bit of appreciation from the party, and Prime isn’t getting any.  What happens next time there is a by-election in a safe National seat?  Labour can’t realistically not stand a candidate.

Advertisements

Read Full Post »

Democracy Ahoy!

Never voted in NZ before, and haven’t been here for an election since I was 15. Getting kind of a weird vibe.

Democracy ahoy.

Read Full Post »

Election Day Welcome

Looking at the stats there is a lot of traffic today coming from seach engines, presumably first time visitors. Welcome! Make yourselves at home.

Most of you will find what you are looking for on the front page, and for those of you who arrived after a search including the word “epsom”, I’m sure Google will send you where you want to go.

For those interested I am on Twitter at @kiwipollguy, and will be commenting tonight as the results come out. I was hoping to have live results updates and see if I could beat the TV News in calling the election, but it will require a few hours coding, and the weather’s looking great, so it may end up just being commentary.

Read Full Post »

Blogger AWOL

First full winter in NZ for a dozen years or so, actually I think it’s my first full winter anywhere for a dozen years or so, and to be honest the weather’s a bit crap. I’ve decided to bugger off to somewhere warmer for a couple of weeks R&R.

I was planning on doing a bit of holiday blogging, but when you’re paying for internets by the minute and it’s good snorkeling outside then blogging tends to take a lower priority. Also, nothing but QWERTY keyboards in internet cafes (damn you Dvorak!)

On the plus side we’re at a quiet point in the electoral cycle, and there haven’t really been any big news events in the last month or so that are likely to alter public opinion. From a polling perspective this has probably been the most boring three years ever, so I’m picking no changes to the status quo for the next polling update on return: say National 53%, Labour 29%, Green 9%. If readers want to leave links to polls in the comments then that will make things easier though, and would be much appreciated.

So, how’s the weather in Wellington?

Read Full Post »

Two more polls: the new monthly(?) polls from TV3-Reid Research and One News-Colmar Brunton.

The updated polling averages now have National on 54.3% +/- 0.9%, Labour on 28.5% +/- 0.8%, the Greens on 9.9% +/- 0.4%, NZF on 2.0% +/- 0.3%, ACT on 1.6% +/- 0.3% and the Maori Party on 1.7% +/- 0.3%.

The polling averages give National a gain of about 2% +/- 1%, completely cancelling out the drop of 2% +/- 1% mentioned in the previous update yesterday. It’s a bit of a strange movement, but it seems reasonable to assume that yesterday’s update was just a statistical fluctuation. The Greens are again showing a small increase putting them just below the 10% mark.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Read Full Post »

The latest NZ political poll was released by Roy Morgan Research on Tuesday, May 11. The poll does not show any significant changes for any of the major or minor NZ political parties relative to the previous Roy Morgan poll.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Read Full Post »

Time stamps

Apologies. I’ve been having a bit of trouble with the time and date stamps on posts due to mixing up time zones. This might have made some posts publish twice and others out of order. Sorry for any inconvenience if anybody is on an RSS feed.

Read Full Post »

Older Posts »