Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Posts Tagged ‘Herald DigiPoll’

The last two polls to make it out in time for the election are the overnight Roy Morgan Research poll and this morning’s Herald-Digipoll

The updated polling averages now have National on 51.4% +/- 0.5%, Labour on 27.1% +/- 0.5%, the Greens on 11.2% +/- 0.3%, NZF on 3.7% +/- 0.2%, ACT on 1.9% +/- 0.2% and the Maori Party on 1.1% +/- 0.2%. Increases for the Greens and New Zealand First are statistically significant relative to the previous update from last night, although only just. Changes for others not statistically significant.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on day of the 2011 NZ General Election (26 November 2011). The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the Green party

Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.

 Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As far as the election results go, National is still predicted to win an outright majority.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Please also check back later this evening, as I will have a new post with the updated candidate election probabilites and effective party lists.

Advertisements

Read Full Post »

This update is based on 14 new polls published between 23 October to 18 November. I won’t list them all, but they can all be found on the Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2011 page on Wikipedia. Much thanks to whomever is updating that page.

The updated polling averages now have National on 51.8% +/- 0.6%, Labour on 27.8% +/- 0.6%, the Greens on 11.5% +/- 0.4%, NZF on 3.5% +/- 0.3%, ACT on 1.6% +/- 0.2% and the Maori Party on 1.6% +/- 0.1%. Relative to the last update a month ago, the polling averages show a statistically significant drop in support for National of 3% +/- 2%, and rise for the Greens of 2% +/- 1%. There has also been a rise for New Zealand First of about 2% +/- 1%.

The drop for National has them about back at their average for the last 24 months, and NZF are still about where they were six months or so ago. The Greens’ rise, however, comes on the back of a series of smaller rises going back about six months or so. The are up roughly 4% +/- 1% on from their typical 7% support through most of this electoral cycle (see graph below).

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the Green party

Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As far as the election results go, National is still predicted to win an outright majority, although we are starting to get to the stage where any further drops in supprt for National may start to have consequences (as long as they are polling over 51% it doesn’t really matter how well they do, from a who’s-in-government perspective). The simulation currently gives National a 99.98% chance of winning an outright majority, and a 0.02% chance of leading a National-ACT coalition.

Scenario analysis for the most recent election simulation.

Scenario analysis for the most recent election simulation. The bar graph shows the probabilities for different possible outcomes for a NZ General Election if held on the date of the current update (please see the top of this page for date.) The National Party would have a roughly 100% chance of governing alone, a roughly 0% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT coalition, and a roughly 0% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT-United Future coalition. There is a roughly 0% chance that the Maori Party would hold the balance of power in Parliament.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Read Full Post »

It’s been about a month since the last update, and in that time we’ve had six new polls: two polls from Roy Morgan Research (1, 2), and one each from TV3-Reid Research, One News-Colmar Brunton, Herald-DigiPoll and Fairfax Media.

The updated polling averages now have National on 54.0% +/- 1.2%, Labour on 28.9% +/- 1.1%, the Greens on 8.4% +/- 0.6%, NZF on 2.8% +/- 0.5%, ACT on 1.9% +/- 0.4% and the Maori Party on 1.9% +/- 0.3%.

Relative to an earlier polling update from 21 August, about a month ago, Labour is down about 1% +/- 1%. The averages have National and the Greens each up about 0.5% +/- 1% relative to a month or so ago; not statistically significant movements on their own, but consistent with the pattern of them both picking up support from Labour’s downward trend over the last half-year or so.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Read Full Post »

Today’s poll is the new (monthly?) Herald-Digipoll for July. There are no major changes to the polling averages. The updated polling averages now have National on 52.2% +/- 1.0%, Labour on 30.9% +/- 0.9%, the Greens on 7.8% +/- 0.5%, New Zealand First on 2.4% +/- 0.4%, and ACT on 2.2% +/- 0.4%.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Read Full Post »

Since the last update just nine days ago we have seen new polls from Roy Morgan Research and Herald-DigiPoll. I’ve also added the May Herald-DigiPoll that I had missed previously, although I don’t think it’s affected the results too much. Hopefully Herald-DigiPoll will be publishing monthly from now until the election.

After taking the usual average of the polls there once again doesn’t seem to be any statistically significant changes for any of the parties, although there may have been a small increase in support for the ACT Party over the last couple of months. The updated polling averages now have National on 52.2% +/- 1.4%, Labour on 32.6% +/- 1.3%, the Greens are on 6.7% +/- 0.7%, and ACT appear up slightly to 2.7% +/- 0.5%

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Read Full Post »

Apologies for the lack of recent updates.

Since the last update three and a half months ago we have seen 13 new polls: eight of the regular fortnightly polls from Roy Morgan, two from TV3-Reid Research, two from One News-Colmar Brunton, and one from Herald-Digipoll. The updated Kiwi Poll Guy polling averages have National on 52.0% +/- 1.7%, Labour on 33.3% +/- 1.6%, and the Greens on 7.5% +/- 0.9%, all virtually unchanged over the past three and a half months.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting at the date of the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively. Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Also shown below are the updated Candidate Election Probabilities. Please click to embiggen. For an explanation of the methodology please see the original post on individual candidate election probabilities.

Probabilities for each candidate to be elected to Parliament through their electorate, through the party list, and the overall combined probability.

Probabilities for each candidate to be elected to Parliament through their electorate, through the party list, and the overall combined probability.

There haven’t been too many big changes since the last update in September 2010. It’s worth reiterating that these results are calculated from hypothetical party lists based on those used at the 2008 General Election, with a few common sense changes made to account for retirements and so on. The most recent change is the removal of Labour candidate Darren Hughes and a replacement with a dummy candidate, “LAB-41-Otaki,” who will contest the Otaki electorate with a presumed #41 list placing. All other Labour candidates with list placings of #17 to #41 have been bumped up one place.

For ease of viewing, the results for candidates serving as electorate MP’s in the 49th Parliament are also shown below, ordered by their electorate number.

Probabilities for reigning electorate candidates to be elected to Parliament through their electorate, through the party list, and both.

Probabilities for reigning electorate candidates to be elected to Parliament through their electorate, through the party list, and both.

Read Full Post »

The latest NZ political poll was conducted by DigiPoll and released by the Herald on February 13. The poll does not show significant changes in support for any of the parties relative to the last Herald-DigiPoll released in late October 2009, and does not significantly alter the polling averages calculated after the latest Roy Morgan Research poll 10 days ago.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2005 NZ General Election, and finishing 60 days from the present. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

Read Full Post »