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Posts Tagged ‘TV3 Reid Research Poll’

In the first post-election update we have five new polls to work with, four from Roy Morgan Reasearch (1, 2, 3, 4) and a TV3-Reid Research poll.

The updated polling averages now have National on 47.6% +/- 1.3%, Labour on 29.6% +/- 1.2%, the Greens on 12.8% +/- 0.8% and NZF on 4.8% +/- 0.5%.

The first point to note is that these numbers are a lot closer to the actual 2011 election result than they are to the final pre-election polling update. What happened? One possible explanation is that a significant minority of voters made up their minds on who they would vote for at the 2011 election a day or so beforehand – too late to show up in any of the polls – and haven’t changed their support since. It seems a bit too suspicious though. I can’t think of any other obvious explanations.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), and United Future (purple), respectively.

Party vote support for the Green party

Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), and United Future (purple), respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results. Unfortunately, though, because there have been only five polls in the last three months the margins of error have blown out, and the graphs aren’t particularly meaningful. In addition, you will notice a strange double-peaked graph for the number of seats National are expected to win. This is a result of unpredictability in whether or not NZF make the 5% threshold, and the graph is basically the sum of two Gaussians: one for when NZF gets over 5% and one for when they get less than 5%. If NZF continues to hover around the 5% mark I will have to think up a better way to present these results. Note also that it is pretty much impossible to predict who would be in government from the recent polls, due, again, to the large margin of error.

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The latest polls are the new One News-Colmar Brunton and TV3-Reid Research polls released this evening, 24 November.

The updated polling averages now have National on 51.7% +/- 0.5%, Labour on 27.5% +/- 0.5%, the Greens on 11.9% +/- 0.3%, NZF on 3.3% +/- 0.3%, ACT on 1.8% +/- 0.2% and the Maori Party on 1.3% +/- 0.2%. Changes are not statistically significant relative to the previous update.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on day of the 2011 NZ General Election (26 November 2011). The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the Green party

Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As far as the election results go, National is still predicted to win an outright majority.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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This update is based on 14 new polls published between 23 October to 18 November. I won’t list them all, but they can all be found on the Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2011 page on Wikipedia. Much thanks to whomever is updating that page.

The updated polling averages now have National on 51.8% +/- 0.6%, Labour on 27.8% +/- 0.6%, the Greens on 11.5% +/- 0.4%, NZF on 3.5% +/- 0.3%, ACT on 1.6% +/- 0.2% and the Maori Party on 1.6% +/- 0.1%. Relative to the last update a month ago, the polling averages show a statistically significant drop in support for National of 3% +/- 2%, and rise for the Greens of 2% +/- 1%. There has also been a rise for New Zealand First of about 2% +/- 1%.

The drop for National has them about back at their average for the last 24 months, and NZF are still about where they were six months or so ago. The Greens’ rise, however, comes on the back of a series of smaller rises going back about six months or so. The are up roughly 4% +/- 1% on from their typical 7% support through most of this electoral cycle (see graph below).

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the Green party

Party vote support for the Green party as determined by moving averages of political polls.

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the five minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As far as the election results go, National is still predicted to win an outright majority, although we are starting to get to the stage where any further drops in supprt for National may start to have consequences (as long as they are polling over 51% it doesn’t really matter how well they do, from a who’s-in-government perspective). The simulation currently gives National a 99.98% chance of winning an outright majority, and a 0.02% chance of leading a National-ACT coalition.

Scenario analysis for the most recent election simulation.

Scenario analysis for the most recent election simulation. The bar graph shows the probabilities for different possible outcomes for a NZ General Election if held on the date of the current update (please see the top of this page for date.) The National Party would have a roughly 100% chance of governing alone, a roughly 0% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT coalition, and a roughly 0% chance of governing as leader of a National-ACT-United Future coalition. There is a roughly 0% chance that the Maori Party would hold the balance of power in Parliament.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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Two more polls: the new monthly(?) polls from TV3-Reid Research and One News-Colmar Brunton.

The updated polling averages now have National on 54.3% +/- 0.9%, Labour on 28.5% +/- 0.8%, the Greens on 9.9% +/- 0.4%, NZF on 2.0% +/- 0.3%, ACT on 1.6% +/- 0.3% and the Maori Party on 1.7% +/- 0.3%.

The polling averages give National a gain of about 2% +/- 1%, completely cancelling out the drop of 2% +/- 1% mentioned in the previous update yesterday. It’s a bit of a strange movement, but it seems reasonable to assume that yesterday’s update was just a statistical fluctuation. The Greens are again showing a small increase putting them just below the 10% mark.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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It’s been about a month since the last update, and in that time we’ve had six new polls: two polls from Roy Morgan Research (1, 2), and one each from TV3-Reid Research, One News-Colmar Brunton, Herald-DigiPoll and Fairfax Media.

The updated polling averages now have National on 54.0% +/- 1.2%, Labour on 28.9% +/- 1.1%, the Greens on 8.4% +/- 0.6%, NZF on 2.8% +/- 0.5%, ACT on 1.9% +/- 0.4% and the Maori Party on 1.9% +/- 0.3%.

Relative to an earlier polling update from 21 August, about a month ago, Labour is down about 1% +/- 1%. The averages have National and the Greens each up about 0.5% +/- 1% relative to a month or so ago; not statistically significant movements on their own, but consistent with the pattern of them both picking up support from Labour’s downward trend over the last half-year or so.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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The new monthly polls from TV3-Reid Research and One News-Colmar Brunton are now out. Unfortunately, detailed results don’t seem to be online yet, but Stuff has a summary of the results.

The updated polling averages now have National on 53.4% +/- 1.1%, Labour on 30.1% +/- 1.0%, the Greens on 7.9% +/- 0.5%, NZF on 2.5% +/- 0.4%, ACT on 2.0% +/- 0.4% and the Maori Party on 1.9% +/- 0.2%.

Relative to an earlier polling update from 20 July, about a month ago, there is practically no movement. Keep in mind, however, that at that time the point of interest was that Labour was down about 2% +/- 1% from a few months previously. There is nothing in the last month to indicate that this trend has really changed. National are also up about 1% +/- 1% since a month or so ago, possibly at the expense of several of the minor parties, although the movement is within the margin of error. (See below for a graph of the Labour Party polling averages.)

I should mention I’ve made a small change to the graphs: they now show the raw polling results for each individual poll, whereas previously they showed the polling results after correcting for pollster bias and pollster induced error. Not a huge difference, but probably fairer and less confusing to just go with the raw results. The moving averages and error band should be unchanged.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the raw statistical errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the Labour Party

Party vote support for the Labour Party, starting 60 days before the 2008 election and finishing on the present day. A statistically significant drop in support of about 3% +/- 1% is visible relative to six months ago.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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The latest NZ political poll is the now six-weekly(?) TV3-Reid Research poll.

After taking the usual average of the polls there appears to be slight movement for National and Labour, although the TV3-Reid Research polls have shown a bit of discrepancy with the others lately, so I’m reluctant to attribute any changes to actual movement without a few more polls to confirm it. The updated polling averages now have National on 54.4% +/- 1.3%, Labour on 30.6% +/- 1.2%, and the Greens on 7.8% +/- 0.6%.

As usual, the two graphs below summarise the polling averages for the party vote after the new poll. The horizontal axes represent the date, starting 60 days before the 2008 NZ General Election, and finishing on the present day. The solid lines with grey error bands show the moving averages of the party vote for each party, and circles show individual polls with the vertical lines representing the total errors.

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the eight major and minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to National (blue), Labour (red), Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties

Party vote support for the six minor NZ political parties as determined by moving averages of political polls. Colours correspond to Green Party (green), New Zealand First (black), Maori Party (pink), ACT (yellow), United Future (purple), and Progressive (light blue) respectively.

As always, please check the Graphs page for further simulation results.

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