By popular request: an update of the previous post with data from the last eight days.
And zoomed in on the last seven months beginning on 20 August, just before David Shearer resigned:
Things have not got better for Labour, with the split now fairly stable at 70/30 odds over the last week. What is worse is that the book is very asymmetrical: to short National’s chances of victory down to 60% you would need to drop $1813, whereas to bid them up to 80% would take only $553. Everybody seems particularly bullish on National’s chances.
To be honest I’m a bit surprised. In the previous post I said that I don’t see how the stock for National can realistically go higher than 70c prior to the pre-election leaders’ debates, and I stand by that. I’m not sure why people keep bidding the stock up past 70c, although profit taking could be part of it. I’ve left a few out of the money asks, but am starting to get a bit over-exposed.